Municipal Enterprises as Shadow Budgets – How do they Affect the Actual Budgetary Situation of Germany´s Local Governments?
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
Outsourcing of municipal tasks from the core budget to municipal enterprises tends to distort the perception of the actual financial position, net assets and results of operations of the German local governments. Excess supply or -demand of/for local public services might be possible consequences of this development. Hence, this article attempts to develop a more comprehensive picture of the municipal budgetary position by a simultaneous analysis of selected indicators. Furthermore, the methodological problems of the calculations are illustrated.
If these shadow budgets are taken into account, the total per capita revenues, -investments and -debts will increase by approximately one third to 50%. However, the share of the municipal employees belonging to the core administration in the total number of municipal employees is 75%. Although only about 22% of the expenditures for certain voluntary municipal tasks have been outsourced, there seems to be an upward trend.
The study also indicates that there are significant differences between Eastern and Western German cities. These include the higher revenues from municipal enterprises, the higher debts per capita and the higher expenditures on culture, sports, leisure services or the promotion of science in Eastern Germany.
The results should be interpreted carefully due to some shortcomings of the official statistics. For example, internal cash flows cannot be totally eliminated. Moreover, indirect municipal majority holdings as well as the municipal savings banks are not included in the results.
All in all, it remains to be seen whether the initiated reforms concerning the introduction of double-entry accounting into the local government budgeting system will help to achieve the ideal goal of a meaningful “consolidated financial statement” for the “city company”.
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Co-existence of Unemployment and Skilled Labour Shortage? Evidence from Thuringia
Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In the light of favourable business conditions during the previous years, business organizations have repeatedly cautioned about a skilled labour shortage that could constrain future development of enterprises. While shortages may be typical of phases of economic expansion, the skilled labour shortage might turn into a permanent phenomenon if one takes into account the shrinking of the working-age population. The demographic transition occurs at an especially rapid pace in Eastern Germany. At the same time, this region still exhibits high rates of chronic unemployment, which renders the possibility of a skilled labour shortage questionable.
We focus on the federal state of Thuringia and investigate two questions. Firstly, we evaluate to what extent occupation-specific bottlenecks exist both in Germany and in Thuringia, using a set of criteria based on official labour market statistics. We find evidence of high utilization of labour supply in technical and metalworking professions in Germany. In the majority of these occupations, the same is true for Thuringia. Hence, a high level of unemployment and skilled labour shortage may coexist, at least in a transition phase. Secondly, we investigate whether companies in Thuringia already expect problems when searching for skilled personnel in the near future. For this purpose, the IWH has conducted a survey among approximately 1 000 companies. It turns out that 61% of the interviewed companies anticipate such problems, with statistically significant differences with respect to the companies’ characteristics. In addition, we discuss selected policies that companies plan to implement in the field of human resource management when anticipating problems.
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Temporary Work in Germany and Europe
C. Boost, Herbert S. Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
Temporary work is one of the fastest growing branches in Germany. This development in a sustained manner influences the whole German labour market. The special organization of this sort of employment for various reasons makes it very attractive to employers and employees as well. Nevertheless, the reputation of this branch is rather poor. Temporary work is characterized as precarious and as an unsafe type of employment. Compared to regular employment, temporary work is often considered as a bridging function into regular employment.
Based on the official statistics of temporary work released by the Federal Work Agency as well as on data from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) for 2007, the paper presents the current situation and important characteristics of temporary work and performs an international comparison.
The number of employees in temporary work agencies is still a marginal share of total employment. The future development of this branch depends on different factors leading to possible contradicting directions. One important aspect influencing temporary work in the future is the degree of flexibility of regular employment opportunities on the one hand and the possibilities of temporary work agencies to adapt to future working conditions on the other hand.
Looking at other European countries, one can see that some degree of saturation in different temporary job opportunities has already been achieved, whereas new perspectives are opened for other jobs, either newly created or transformed from regular employment schemes.
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Incubator Age and Incubation Time: Determinants of Firm Survival after Graduation?
Michael Schwartz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 14,
2008
Abstract
On the basis of a sample of 149 graduate firms from five German technology oriented business incubators, this article contributes to incubator/incubation literature by investigating the effects of the age of the business incubators and the firms’ incubation time in securing long-term survival of the firms after leaving the incubator facilities. The empirical findings from Cox-proportional hazards regression and parametric accelerated failure time models reveal a statistically negative impact for both variables incubator age and incubation time on post-graduation firm survival. One possible explanation for these results is that, when incubator managers become increasingly involved in various regional development activities (e.g. coaching of regional network initiatives), this may reduce the effectiveness of incubator support and therefore the survival chances of firms.
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Using multivariate statistical methods to identify municipality clusters
Dirk Trocka
Теоретические основы и опыт стратегическ,
2008
Abstract
The monthly calculation of the Consumer Price Index is based on a sample survey in different municipalities. This study intends to evaluate and improve the representativity of the municipalities within the sample in Saxony-Anhalt with respect to their number and type applying multivariate analysis. The analysis uses variables representing both demand and supply conditions in the municipalities that determine market outcomes. It also considers the importance of a municipality for the neighbouring area.
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Metformin-Therapie bei PCO-Syndrom - Positive Vierjahresbilanz des oralen Antidiabetikums
D. Albrecht, P. Kaltwasser, E. Rosenkranz, Dirk Trocka
MedReview,
2007
Abstract
The Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most frequent endocrinal disease of women in child-bearing age. PCOS represents a high risk for infertility, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. This article analyses the outcomes after four years of PCOS-treatment with Metformin, an orally administered medication. We describe under which circumstances Metformin treatment is useful.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and its hybrid
variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest rests on the average frequency of price re-optimization of firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method that is based upon the Anderson-Rubin statistic. We find out that the German Phillips Curve is purely forward looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every two to three quarters. While these estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view, the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanations why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way how orthogonality conditions are formulated. Additionally, model misspecifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. Taken together, this analysis points out
the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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Comparing the training activities of unemployed and full-time employed people
Birgit Schultz, Joachim Wilde
Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Many empirical studies for Germany consider either the training activities of the unemployed or those of employees. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups had not been conducted until now. The paper closes this gap. Using data from the latest time-use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training undertaken by the two groups is compared. Furthermore, the types of activities that are made use of in particular are described. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by applying a matching procedure. The findings demonstrate that only 49% of unemployed people participate in any kind of training activity off the job. In the case of full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference is reversed, i.e. the expenditure of time is greater during unemployment. However, a large proportion of the training activities undertaken by the unemployed comprises general training, e.g. by reading books or watching television. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. In relation to this potential of time, the amount of training activity is still smaller during unemployment.
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Determinants of Female Migration – The Case of German NUTS 3 Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 12,
2007
Abstract
Our study examines the regional patterns and determinants of migration flows of young women. At the NUTS-3 regional level, i.e. the district level (Kreise), the German internal migration flows of the year 2005 are explored. From descriptive statistics it can be seen that peripheral regions in East Germany face the strongest migration deficit with respect to young women, whereas agglomerations in West Germany but also in the East benefit from an intense migration surplus within this group. An econometric analysis of determinants of regional migration flows gives evidence of the importance of labour market, family-related and educational migration motives. Generally speaking, young women tend to choose regions with good income and job opportunities, in addition they seem to be attracted by regions enabling an appropriate balance between family and career. Furthermore the existence of excellent educational facilities is a significant influence for young women’s migration. This educationally motivated type of migration generates a long lasting effect on the regional migration balance, especially when the educational opportunities in the destination region are associated with adequate career perspectives for high qualified female graduates. In view of considerable losses due to migration, the study shows various options for action. An important course of action is to incorporate policy measures improving regional employment and income opportunities. Secondly, extending vocational and academic offers addressed to women seems to be a suitable way to stimulate women’s immigration. Moreover, enhancing the social infrastructure, which contributes to a satisfactory work life balance, might attract young women or at least reduce the number of them leaving a region.
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Spatial Distribution of East German Innovative Competencies: Significant Increase in the Southwestern Hinterland of Berlin and in the Centres of Saxony and Thuringia
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
Patent applications constitute an essential indicator for the extent of innovative activities in an economy or region. Due to the fact that innovative activities are in general spatially concentrated, policy makers perceive in this information starting points for a growth-oriented regional policy. Against this background, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in 2004 had examined the spatial distribution of industries, firm networks and innovative competencies in the context of an area-wide study for East Germany. Newly available data for the patent statistics allow for an updating of these results regarding the innovative competencies for the time period from 2000 to 2005. In comparison to the time period between 1995 and 2000, an increase in innovative competencies becomes evident. This growth takes place almost exclusively in regions where innovative competencies are already domiciled. All in all, the growth dynamics of East Germany with regard to patent applications is slightly behind the West German one. The distribution of technological fields, to which the applied patents refer to, remained largely constant during the two observation periods. In the area of bio-technology, electrical engineering and of health care the standing of East Germany has further improved. With regard to political implications, the data should not be used for imposing technology specific support programs. Instead a tax relief for R&D independent of the used technologies seems to be more adequate.
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