Professor Dr. Oliver Holtemöller

Professor Dr. Oliver Holtemöller
Aktuelle Position

seit 3/14

Stellvertretender Präsident

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 8/09

Leiter der Abteilung Makroökonomik

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 8/09

Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre


Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg

Forschungsschwerpunkte

  • quantitative Makroökonomik, Konjunkturzyklen und Prognose
  • angewandte Ökonometrie und Zeitreihenanalyse
  • monetäre Ökonomik
  • makroökonomische Politik

Oliver Holtemöller ist stellvertretender Präsident des Instituts. Er ist Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Makroökonomik an der Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg und Leiter der Abteilung Makroökonomik am IWH.

Von 2001 bis 2003 war er wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter im Sonderforschungsbereich 373: Quantifizierung und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse an der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Von 2003 bis 2009 war er Juniorprofessor für Allgemeine Volkswirtschaftslehre an der RWTH Aachen.

Er hat Volkswirtschaftslehre, Angewandte Mathematik und Praktische Informatik an der Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen studiert. Anschließend war er von 1998 bis 2001 Stipendiat der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) und absolvierte das gemeinsame Graduiertenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik der Freien Universität Berlin und der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Die Promotion erfolgte 2001 an der Freien Universität zu Berlin (Dissertation: Vector Autoregressive Models and Monetary Policy Analysis).

 

 

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Ihr Kontakt

Professor Dr. Oliver Holtemöller
Professor Dr. Oliver Holtemöller
Leiter - Abteilung Makroökonomik
Nachricht senden +49 345 7753-800 Persönliche Seite

Publikationen

Neueste Publikationen

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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany

Christoph Schult Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Energy Economics, im Erscheinen

Abstract

In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.

Publikation lesen

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(Since when) are East and West German business Cycles Synchronised?

Stefan Gießler Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, im Erscheinen

Abstract

We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

Publikation lesen

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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach

João Carlos Claudio Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Empirical Economics, im Erscheinen

Abstract

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.

Publikation lesen

 

Referierte Publikationen

cover_Energy-Economics.gif

Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany

Christoph Schult Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Energy Economics, im Erscheinen

Abstract

In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.

Publikation lesen

cover_jahrbuecher-fuer-nationaloekonomie-und-statistik.jpg

(Since when) are East and West German business Cycles Synchronised?

Stefan Gießler Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, im Erscheinen

Abstract

We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

Publikation lesen

cover_empirical-economics.jpg

Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach

João Carlos Claudio Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Empirical Economics, im Erscheinen

Abstract

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy

Oliver Holtemöller Alexander Kriwoluzky Boreum Kwak

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 17, 2020

Abstract

We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of exchange rate changes increases. Making use of this heteroskedasticity, we estimate that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline in prices and output, while a positive information shock appreciates the dollar, decreases prices and the excess bond premium, and increases output.

Publikation lesen

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Integrated Assessment of Epidemic and Economic Dynamics

Oliver Holtemöller

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 4, 2020

Abstract

In this paper, a simple integrated model for the joint assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics is developed. The model can be used to discuss mitigation policies like shutdown and testing. Since epidemics cause output losses due to a reduced labor force, temporarily reducing economic activity in order to prevent future losses can be welfare enhancing. Mitigation policies help to keep the number of people requiring intensive medical care below the capacity of the health system. The optimal policy is a mixture of temporary partial shutdown and intensive testing and isolation of infectious persons for an extended period of time.

Publikation lesen

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(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?

Stefan Gießler Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 7, 2019

Abstract

This paper analyses whether and since when East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, recently synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to become weaker, in line with international evidence.

Publikation lesen
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