Co-existence of Unemployment and Skilled Labour Shortage? Evidence from Thuringia
Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In the light of favourable business conditions during the previous years, business organizations have repeatedly cautioned about a skilled labour shortage that could constrain future development of enterprises. While shortages may be typical of phases of economic expansion, the skilled labour shortage might turn into a permanent phenomenon if one takes into account the shrinking of the working-age population. The demographic transition occurs at an especially rapid pace in Eastern Germany. At the same time, this region still exhibits high rates of chronic unemployment, which renders the possibility of a skilled labour shortage questionable.
We focus on the federal state of Thuringia and investigate two questions. Firstly, we evaluate to what extent occupation-specific bottlenecks exist both in Germany and in Thuringia, using a set of criteria based on official labour market statistics. We find evidence of high utilization of labour supply in technical and metalworking professions in Germany. In the majority of these occupations, the same is true for Thuringia. Hence, a high level of unemployment and skilled labour shortage may coexist, at least in a transition phase. Secondly, we investigate whether companies in Thuringia already expect problems when searching for skilled personnel in the near future. For this purpose, the IWH has conducted a survey among approximately 1 000 companies. It turns out that 61% of the interviewed companies anticipate such problems, with statistically significant differences with respect to the companies’ characteristics. In addition, we discuss selected policies that companies plan to implement in the field of human resource management when anticipating problems.
Read article
Changing patterns of employment
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In Germany, the typical pattern of employment is still an employee with open-ended full time contract (standard employment relationship). Nearly three out of four employed persons work in that type of employment. However, during the last years, a number of other employment models expanded in the labour market: part-time, temporary, short-term and marginal workers. Main reasons for that development are the effects of globalization, the structural change in modern economies (the increasing importance of the services sector), and changing preferences on the part of employees to achieve a better work-life-balance. The article deals with the rise of atypical employment relationships. We find that atypical work is a domain of female and young people. During the last years, atypical employment relationship in West and East Germany increased similarly due to globalization. Differences in employment patterns between East and West could be linked to employment behaviour and structural determinants.
Read article
Bank Regulation and Supervision in Bank-dominated Financial Systems: A Comparison between Japan and Germany
Diemo Dietrich, Ralf Bebenroth, Uwe Vollmer
European Journal of Law and Economics,
2009
Abstract
This paper compares bank regulation and supervision in Japan and Germany. We consider these countries because they both have bank-dominated financial systems and their banking systems are often lumped together as one model, yet, bank stability differs significantly. We show that Japan and Germany have chosen different approaches to bank regulation and supervision and ask why they made their choices. We argue that bank regulation and supervision were less efficient in Japan than in Germany and that these differences were decisive for bank behavior.
Read article
Industry Concentration and Regional Innovative Performance – Empirical Evidence for Eastern Germany
Christoph Hornych, Michael Schwartz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2009
Abstract
Regarding technological innovativeness, the transformed economy of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) clearly lags behind the Western part of the country. To face this weakness, a broad mixture of policy measures was carried out in recent years. Particular attention is drawn to the development of industry concentrations and economic ‘clusters’. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policy measures regarding how industry concentrations in fact promote innovative performance in Eastern Germany. The present study tries to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between industry concentration in Eastern Germany and regional innovative performance. Our empirical analysis is based upon the number of patent applications of 22 manufacturing industries in 22 Eastern German planning regions. The estimated regression models indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between the degree of industry concentration and innovative performance. An exceedingly high degree of industry concentration in one region hampers regional innovative output. We discuss policy implications of our findings and give recommendations for future refinement of ‘cluster’-supporting policy schemes in Eastern Germany.
Read article
IWH-Industrieumfrage in Ostdeutschland zum Jahresauftakt 2009: Im Abwärtssog
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
Die Unternehmen des ostdeutschen Verarbeitenden Gewerbes sind in das Geschäftsjahr 2008 eher verhalten gestartet. Bis zum Sommer erwärmte sich das
Geschäftsklima spürbar. Dafür sorgten unter anderem gut gefüllte Auftragsbücher und eine kräftige Auslandsnachfrage. Ab dem Hochsommer berichteten die Unternehmen über eine Verschlechterung der Auftragslage, und das Klima trübte sich ein. Ein erdrutschartiger Absturz erfolgte beim Übergang vom dritten zum vierten Quartal. Trotz des abwärtsgerichteten Verlaufs der konjunkturellen Entwicklung konnten 59% der Unternehmen gegenüber 2007 Umsatzzuwächse melden, ein Drittel musste allerdings Einbußen hinnehmen. Besonders gut gelaufen ist es wie schon im Jahr 2007 für Investitionsgüterproduzenten. Die Exportunternehmen la
gen mit ihren Umsätzen im Durchschnitt der Industrie und nicht mehr wie in den vergangenen Jahren darüber. Bei den Umsatzerwartungen für 2009 halten sich Optimisten und Pessimisten nahezu die Waage: 43% der Unternehmen rechnen mit Steigerungen und 42% mit Rückgängen, davon allerdings 23% mit Rückgängen von über 10%. Besonders pessimistisch sind die Hersteller von Vorleistungsgütern, und die Konsumgüterproduzenten zeigen den größten Optimismus. Zwei Drittel aller befragten Unternehmen erwirtschafteten 2008 Gewinne, ein Jahr zuvor lag dieser Anteil bei drei Vierteln. Jedes fünfte Unternehmen geht bei den Beschäftigungsplänen für 2009 von einem Stellenabbau aus. Die Mehrheit allerdings rechnet damit, dass die Mitarbeiterzahl gehalten wird (52%). Sowohl bei den Beschäftigtenzahlen als auch bei den Umsätzen erwartet ein nicht unbeträchtlicher Teil der ostdeutschen Industrieunternehmen für 2009 eine positive Entwicklung. Die Einschätzungen des Geschäfts klimas lagen in der Vergangenheit auf einem sehr hohen Niveau. Dieses wird wohl in absehbarer Zeit nicht wieder erreicht, aber aus den Unternehmen kommen nicht nur düstere Botschaften.
Read article
The Ending of Solidarity Pact Payments: Are the “Neue Länder” Prepared Sufficiently?
Katja Wilde, Sabine Freye
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
Up to 2019, the “Neue Länder” in Germany are benefitting from financial transfer within the framework of the solidarity pact. From 2005 to 2007, the “Neue Länder” were able to improve they financial situation and used the solidarity pact payments efficiently. However, these payments are decreasing annually. This implies a significant financial reduction to the “Neue Länder’s” overall budgets and a considerable challenge for their future investments. This article analyses publications by the governments of the “Neue Länder” about their medium term budget planning and related progress reports from the year 2006. The consolidation of their budgets seems to be an essential aspect in the policy strategy of “Neue Länder” due to limited tax autonomy and legal restrictions on their expenditures. However, we identified several consolidation strategies with regard to infrastructural priorities, restructuring of administration, and creation of reserves. The public revenues of the “Neue Länder” are expected to decline in 2009 due to the current recession. In case that there are no fundamental changes in the underlying economic structures, the financial scope of the “Neue Länder” is going to be increasingly constrained, in particular with regard to future investments.
Read article
Political Institutionalisation and Economic Specialisation in Polycentric Metropolitan Regions – The Case of the East-German ‘Saxony Triangle’
Peter Franz, Christoph Hornych
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2009
Abstract
The rising attention of politicians as well as scientists in the EU to the large urban agglomerations as centres of economic growth is accompanied by political efforts to identify and to demarcate such agglomerations under the label ‘metropolitan regions’. This study develops a theoretical framework broaching the issue of cooperation between municipalities from the perspective of regional economics as well as political science. The framework is applied to the empirical case of the polycentric metropolitan region ‘Saxony Triangle’ in East Germany. The results show that various intervening factors prevent intense cooperation between the actors in the region. Policy implications and con-
clusions for future research are discussed.
Read article
Soll die Höhe von Investitionszuschüssen an die Einführung von Umweltmanagementsystemen gekoppelt werden?
Mirko Titze
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
Economic policy has to reconcile a very complex set of objectives. Often, there is a trade-off between these policy targets. This paper focuses on objectives related to the improvement of the regional economic structure and the environmental protection. In Germany, regional policy is pursued among other things using investment grants within the Joint Task framework. At the federal state level, the Länder select and support sustainable investment projects. Some federal states have changed their investment support framework and aim for additional political targets such as environmental protection. Politicians in the Free State of Saxony discuss the option to offer an addition to the basic investment grant. This applies to plants that operate a certified environmental management system. Related to this current political debate this paper describes the effects of such regulatory measures. The article shows that under a particular set of circumstances the envisaged regulation actually could lower the overall level of supported investment and therefore would not stimulate the introduction of environmental management systems. Hence both political objectives would not be fully reconciled. The alternative way could be a direct support of environmental management systems as already introduced in selected other Länder.
Read article
Aktuelle Trends: Überraschend stabile Geschäftsaussichten auswärtiger Investoren in Ostdeutschland für das Jahr 2009
Björn Jindra, Jutta Günther, Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
Zwischen dem 16. Oktober und 10. Dezember 2008 hat das IWH 657 Tochtergesellschaften ausländischer und westdeutscher multinationaler Investoren mit Sitz in den Neuen Bundesländern zu den Erwartungen für das Geschäftsjahr 2009 befragt. Diese Unternehmen haben in der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft ein erhebliches Gewicht, so arbeitet z. B. jeder vierte Arbeitnehmer im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe für ein Unternehmen mit auswärtigen Investoren.
Read article
The Formation of Photovoltaic Clusters in Eastern Germany
Matthias Brachert, Christoph Hornych
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
One of the weaknesses of the East German economy is the relative lack of management functions and headquarters along with the relatively low research and developing efforts of the companies. With the emergence of new industries, there is a chance to respond to these weaknesses. Against this background, the article examines the emergence and development of the photovoltaic industry in Eastern Germany. The strong production and sales growth of the industry in the recent years is a result of central government funding programs. But up to now, East German regions have profited disproportionately from the growth of the sector. In 2008, we find about 14 000 direct industry employees in this sector in Eastern Germany.
Based on the Window of Locational Opportunity concept (WLO) by Storper and Walker – a stage model of industrial development –, this article describes the reasons of the development of the industry in Eastern Germany from 1996 until 2008. In spite of persistent growth processes and the foundation of new companies within the photovoltaic industry, a concentration on some certain locations, linked with the process of the formation of industrial clusters, becomes apparent. In a first result of the emergence of clusters, the regions of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Dresden/Freiberg, Erfurt/Arnstadt, Frankfurt (Oder) and Berlin build leading sites in Eastern Germany.
Read article