“Gleichwertigkeit der Lebensverhältnisse“ zwischen Politik und Marktmechanismus: Zusammenfassende Bewertung der Befunde und Schlussfolgerungen für regionale Entwicklungsstrategien
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
M. T. W. Rosenfeld, D. Weiß (Hrsg.), Gleichwertigkeit der Lebensverhältnisse zwischen Politik und Marktmechanismus. Empirische Befunde aus den Ländern Sachsen. Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
2010
Abstract
The principle of „Interregional Equality“ enjoys general acceptance today in Germany. However, there is a great deal of discusssion and heated debate regarding the „correkt“ interpretation of this principle and the „correct“ means for achieving it. This ist the background against which the article is evaluating the evidence from existing empirical studies on different aspects of „Interregional Equality“. It is shown that, in Germany, there is much more euqality between the cities and regions than one would expect by only looking at indicators which are derived from the official statistics. Most impressive is the fact that in many cases, there are mechanisms, driven by the market forces, which are leading to an equalization between the wealthier cities and regions and the poorer ones.
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Unternehmensnetzwerke in der Photovoltaik-Industrie – Starke Verbundenheit und hohe Kooperationsintensität
Christoph Hornych, Matthias Brachert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
The Photovoltaic-(PV)-Industry is a comparatively new industrial sector which is affected by high level of uncertainty. This uncertainty is derived from different technology paths as same as uncertainty about the future market developments. Important instruments to come up with uncertainty are firm networks. Thereby the state of the knowledge about the degree of interconnectedness between the German PV-industry is poor. This article aims to close this gap by giving an overview about the integration of PV-enterprises in firm networks.
The empirical analysis of the network structure of the German PV-industry thereby confirms the expected high level of network relations. Almost nine out of ten firms cooperate with other PV-firms in Germany. Also, the intensity of cooperation turns out to be above the average compared to other industrial sectors. On average one PV-firm cooperates with 5.8 other PV-firms. This indicates possibilities for a better knowledge exchange in the sector. Overall the high cooperation intensity supports the assumption that PV-industry is able to benefit from the spatial concentration of the industry in the region.
Despite the dense network which has already emerged, the promotion of networks can still be an efficient paradigm to support innovativeness and growth in this sector. This is going to be even more successful if the results of the network analysis are integrated into the government supporting scheme.
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Gleichwertigkeit der Lebensverhältnisse zwischen Politik und Marktmechanismus. Empirische Befunde.
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Dominik (Hrsg.) Weiß
,
2010
Abstract
The principle of safeguarding “parity of living conditions” enjoys general acceptance today in Germany: as one of the fundamental precepts underlying Germany’s federal system of governance, and derived from the social-state principle, its standing is not at issue. However, there is a great deal of discussion and heated debate regarding the “correct” interpretation of this principle and the “correct” means for achieving it. This is the background against which this collection of papers aims to contribute to a more nuanced appraisal of the spatial disparities – or rather the degree of “parity of living conditions” – currently prevailing in the first decade of the twenty-first century. It also examines the efficacy of policy measures previously undertaken in the name of greater “parity” by considering some of the sub-regions of eastern Germany, and makes some suggestions for changes in policy.
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Deriving the Term Structure of Banking Crisis Risk with a Compound Option Approach: The Case of Kazakhstan
Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Discussion paper, Series 2: Banking and financial studies, No. 01/2010,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term default risk to each maturity. Applying the Duan (1994) maximum likelihood approach, we find for Kazakhstan that the overall crisis probability was mainly driven by short-term risk, which increased from 25% in March 2007 to 80% in December 2008. Concurrently, the long-term default risk increased from 20% to only 25% during the same period.
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CO2-Navigator – ein Softwaretool zur Unterstützung von Investitionsoptionen zur Emissionsreduktion und zum Management von Klimarisiken
Edeltraud Günther, G. Weber, M. Nowack, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Klimaschutz und Anpassung an die Klimafolgen: Strategien, Maßnahmen und Anwendungsbeispiele,
2009
Abstract
Global warming and increased climate policies are associated with risks for many companies, but also with opportunities.The chair of Business Administration, esp. Environmental Management at the TU Dresden and the Halle Institute for Economic Research studied the question of how companies can deal with these challenges funded by the BMBF project “Corporate Management under the Constraints of Climate Change Policy (CO2 Navigator)“.Specific concern of the project network was to provide companies assistance to develop a) potential emission reduction strategies and medium-term adjustments to changing environmental conditions, b) assess the economic impact and c) derive decisions for practical use on this basis.The core elements of the research, risk management and assessment of adaptation strategies with the real option approach and the CO2-Navigator software resulting from the project are described in this article.
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The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2465,
2008
Abstract
Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle model, hypotheses on the determinants of the relative volatility of capital and labor are derived. The model is tested using industry-level data. The data cover 11 industrialized countries, 22 manufacturing and services industries, and a maximum of 35 years. The paper has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor and capital incomes has declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the idiosyncratic component of income volatility has hardly changed over time. Third, crosssectional heterogeneity in the evolution of relative income volatilities is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile in relative terms. Fourth, income volatility is related to variables measuring the bargaining power of workers. Trade openness has no significant impact.
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Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
This paper describes the IWH macroeconometric model, a quarterly structural model for the German Economy. It focuses on the specification and estimation on supply-side aspects of the model. This approach guarantees a theoretical derived long-run model equilibrium. It combines short-run forecasting requirements with a long-run theoretical foundation. For some macroeconomic aggregates short- and long-run effects of supply- and demand shocks are illustrated. Additionally, effects of external shocks are investigated through model simulations to illustrate aggregate model characteristics.
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International Financial Integration and Stability: On the Causes of the International Banking Crisis 2007/08 and Some Preliminary Lessons.
Diemo Dietrich, Achim Hauck
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2008
Abstract
Since its beginning, the recent financial market turmoil that has come to be known as the „subprime crisis“ has provoked considerable controversy among both, policymakers and scientists. The debate mainly focuses on two questions. The first is whether and how short-term measures should be taken to stabilize the global financial system. The second is which general lessons can be drawn from this crisis. Up to now, several potential causes of the crisis have been discussed in a more or less isolated manner. However, a predominant source of the crisis has not been identified yet. Accordingly, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding general consequences of the crisis for economic policy.
The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we show that to a large extent the crisis is due to the economic integration of formerly peripheral countries into the world economy that led to significant savings and investment imbalances. Thus, we argue that the crisis not only is a global phenomenon in its effects but also has global roots. Based on this argument, the second purpose of our paper is to derive implications for economic policy, where we also discuss the consequences for the future design of the global financial architecture.
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Is a Centralisation of Local Governmental Structures an Appropriate Way to Ensure an Efficient Provision of Local Public Services? Findings from Case Studies in the State of Saxony-Anhalt
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Choosing the appropriate organisational model for local government (i. e. centralised vs. federal model) forms an essential challenge for local communities. Against the background of Fiscal Federalism, a trade-off between the two models mentioned can be expected: Though the centralised model may bring up economies of scale and scope, the federal form of local government may have advantages, too, for instance regarding the extent of civil participation. The article has the intention to answer the question how the degree of centralisation/decentralisation of local governmental organisation affects the provision of services of public interest. The article is based on case studies conducted in ten municipalities located in the State of Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. The government of Saxony-Anhalt intends to implement a reform project targeted at the modernisation of local governmental organisation. The basic reform idea is to transform the local governmental structures from a situation (at the beginning of 2008) where a co-existence of centralised and federally organised municipalities is given towards a future situation where the centralised model should be dominating. In line with the expectation derived from theory, the empirical findings do not draw a picture, which is unequivocally in favour either of the centralised or of the federal model. However, the reform of modernisation of local governmental organisation should remain on the agenda, especially due to a shrinking population in the rural parts of Saxony-Anhalt. This could support the state government’s plans of a more centralized organisation of local government. But this would mean to give up the advantages of the existing federal model of local government. Therefore, in addition to the centralised model favoured by the state government, politicians in Saxony-Anhalt should look for the possibility of an alternative “third” model, which tries to combine the advantages of economies of scale with a greater degree of civil participation.
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Will new IMF-Instrument prevent currency crises?
Tobias Knedlik, Johannes Ströbel
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
The resent experience with currency crises shows that not only economies with weak fundamentals are hit by crises. After long-lasting discussions of appropriate instruments to reduce the risk for currency crises in emerging market economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a new proposal of an instrument: the Reserve Augmentation Line (RAL). This new proposal shows that at the current state such an instrument is not available.
This contribution confronts the RAL proposal with theoretically derived requirements on preventive liquidity instruments. It shows that only limited preventive effects can be expected. The limitation of the instrument to 300 percent of the quota and the unsolved problem of sending negative signals to the market if countries apply for the instrument are the main drawbacks. However, the RAL would enable the IMF for the first time to provide liquidity immediately in the case of the crisis after pre-qualification. Thus, the instrument fulfills one important request from the academic discussions.
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