The Requirement of Qualified Workers in Thuringia until 2015: Forecast and Policy Recommendations
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
Read article
Global Financial Crisis Seriously Hits Russian Economy Because of Structural Imbalances
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2009
Abstract
Due to the falling global demand for commodities and the heavy decline of world oil prices in last summer, Russian economy was affected seriously. The following decrease in export revenues and a wave of short-term capital withdrawals led to a crash of Russian stock and capital markets and a deterioration of the economic situation at the end of the previous year. The government decided to stabilize the exchange rate of the Rouble by interventions and to support the domestic banking sector in order to maintain credit availability. In respect of the approaching recession, the parliament approved an economic stimulus package that would help to stabilize the economy and to avoid too strong social burdens for the households. Nevertheless, there is a strong weakening of economic growth because of the economy’s dependency from oil prices and the lack of alternatives up to now.
Read article
Consequences, opportunities and challenges for modern biotechnology for Europe (BIO4EU) - TASK 2. Report 3
S. Gaisser, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Thomas Reiss
One-off Publications,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
Modern biotechnology is one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century with a potentially wide range of applications in many sectors, including health, agriculture and industrial processes. Considering the potential of modern biotechnology to contribute to the achievement of major European Union policy goals, such as economic growth and job creation, public health, environmental protection and sustainable development, the European Parliament has requested the European Commission to carry out an assessment of modern biotechnology. The European Commission welcomed the initiative and announced to undertake a study “to conduct a cost benefit analysis of biotechnology and genetic engineering, including genetically modified organisms in the light of major European policy goals formulated in the Lisbon Strategy,
Read article
The Formation of Photovoltaic Clusters in Eastern Germany
Matthias Brachert, Christoph Hornych
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
One of the weaknesses of the East German economy is the relative lack of management functions and headquarters along with the relatively low research and developing efforts of the companies. With the emergence of new industries, there is a chance to respond to these weaknesses. Against this background, the article examines the emergence and development of the photovoltaic industry in Eastern Germany. The strong production and sales growth of the industry in the recent years is a result of central government funding programs. But up to now, East German regions have profited disproportionately from the growth of the sector. In 2008, we find about 14 000 direct industry employees in this sector in Eastern Germany.
Based on the Window of Locational Opportunity concept (WLO) by Storper and Walker – a stage model of industrial development –, this article describes the reasons of the development of the industry in Eastern Germany from 1996 until 2008. In spite of persistent growth processes and the foundation of new companies within the photovoltaic industry, a concentration on some certain locations, linked with the process of the formation of industrial clusters, becomes apparent. In a first result of the emergence of clusters, the regions of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Dresden/Freiberg, Erfurt/Arnstadt, Frankfurt (Oder) and Berlin build leading sites in Eastern Germany.
Read article
Growth, Volatility, and Credit Market Imperfections: Evidence from German Firms
Claudia M. Buch, Jörg Döpke
Journal of Economic Studies,
2008
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it studies whether output volatility and growth are linked at the firm-level, using data for German firms. Second, it explores whether the link between volatility and growth depends on the degree of credit market imperfections.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a novel firm-level dataset provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the so-called Financial Statements Data Pool. The dataset has time series observations for German firms for the period 1997-2004, and the authors use information on the debt-to-assets or leverage ratio of firms to proxy for credit-constraints at the firm-level. As additional proxies for the importance of credit market imperfections, we use information on the size and on the legal status of firms.
Findings – The authors find that higher volatility has a negative impact on growth for small and a positive impact for larger firms. Higher leverage is associated with higher growth. At the same time, there is heterogeneity in the determinants of growth across firms from different sectors and across firms with a different legal status.
Practical implications – While most traditional macroeconomic models assume that growth and volatility are uncorrelated, a number of microeconomic models suggest that the two may be linked. However, it is unclear whether the link is positive or negative. The paper presents additional evidence regarding this question. Moreover, understanding whether credit market conditions affect the link between volatility and growth is of importance for policy makers since it suggests a channel through which the credit market can have long-run welfare implications. The results stress the importance of firm-level heterogeneity for the effects and effectiveness of economic policy measures.
Originality/value – The paper has two main novel features. First, it uses a novel firm-level dataset to analyze the determinants of firm-level growth. Second, it analyzes the growth-volatility nexus using firm-level data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper, which addresses the link between volatility, growth, and credit market imperfections using firm-level data.
Read article
Crisis Contagion in Central and Eastern Europe
Hubert Gabrisch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2008
Abstract
The global financial crisis reached the Central and Eastern European region. Fears of a recession are spreading among investors in Russia and the Ukraine due to the heavy decline of oil and steel prices and provoked a first wave of short-term capital withdrawals. The export sector of all countries in the region is affected by weakening global demand. Finally, the financial sector, which is dominated by international banks in almost all countries, appears as the contagion channel for risk adjustments of mother banks. The combined impact of all these causes and channels lead to a proliferation of restrictions in credit and money supply and an outflow of investment capital. A strong weakening of economic growth is on the way in the region, and a long-lasting recession seems possible in some countries, in first line in the Baltic countries. It becomes a superior task of governments to ease the length and depth of the approaching recession by a strong fiscal stimulus. A continuation of the present policy of fiscal consolidation or of nominal convergence toward a quick adoption of the Euro does not seem very advisable. If governments decided to support domestic demand, measures should be taken to strengthening of a genuinely domestic banking sector in order to maintain credit availability.
Read article
The Identification of Regional Industrial Clusters Using Qualitative Input-Output Analysis
Mirko Titze, Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2008
Abstract
The ‘cluster theory’ has become one of the main concepts promoting regional competitiveness, innovation, and growth. As most studies focus on measures of concentration of one industrial branch in order to identify regional clusters, the appropriate analysis of specific vertical relations within a value-adding chain is developing in this discussion. This paper tries to identify interrelated sectors via national input-output tables with the help of Minimal Flow Analysis by Schnabl (1994). The regionalization of these national industry templates is carried out with the allocation of branch-specific production values on regional employment. As a result, the paper shows concentrations of vertical clusters in only 27 of 439 German NUTS-3 regions.
Read article
Demographic Change and Labour Markets: Why are Older Employees less Mobile?
Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
Since older workers are less disposed to change jobs workforce ageing will affect labour mobility in Germany. On the basis of the IAB-Employment Sample (IABS) the contribution analyzes the effect of age on job and occupational mobility. The study focuses on the question whether older workers are less mobile due to the optimal matching quality of their current job which cannot be improved by job switches or whether other factors have to be considered for explaining the age related mobility decline.
Econometric results firstly confirm the significance of expected wage growth for mobility decision across all age groups. Secondly, older workers seem to benefit from wage increase due to a job change less frequently than younger workers. However, this factor explains only a part of the mobility lag. Even after controlling for the wage effect younger workers change jobs more often than older ones.
For this reason the opinion that ageing will impede the labour market adjustments cannot be disabled. If older workers only slightly react on wage signals and do not respond to attractive offers growing firms might face problems to recruit appropriate staff – a trend which could have negative consequences for technological and sectoral changes of the entire economy.
Read article
Eastern German Economy: No Catching-up in 2008 and 2009
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
In the New Lander, growth of production is characterized by two diverging developments. On the one hand, the manufacturing sector has expanded strongly while the public service sector as well as the retail sectors has considerably damped economic activity. On the other hand, those firms primarily bound to local markets have gained hardly any momentum, whereas others have been stimulated by external markets in Western Germany and abroad. These differences are mainly due to weak local demand in the wake of a low purchasing power and an ongoing reduction in the population. At the same time, export-oriented firms in the manufacturing sector have benefited from strong external demand, and they will further benefit from it, although somewhat less owing to the slowing world economy. However, as East German exporting firms are less exposed to those countries where the ongoing crisis in the real estate and the financial sector has unfolded its dampening effects the most, they are also less prone to it. Accordingly, gross domestic product will increase by 1,7% this year and 0,8% in 2009. This translates into further improvements on labor markets. Registered unemployment will fall below one million. In particular, manufacturing firms and the private business service sector will increase their demand for labor.
Read article