Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?
Peter Sarlin, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The ex-post threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks: unstable thresholds in recursive estimations and an in-sample overfit at the expense of out-of-sample performance. We propose two alternatives for threshold setting: (i) including preferences in the estimation itself and (ii) setting thresholds ex-ante according to preferences only. We provide simulated and real-world evidence that this simplification results in stable thresholds and improves out-of-sample performance. Our solution is not restricted to binary-choice models, but directly transferable to the signaling approach and all probabilistic early-warning models.
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R&D Collaboration for Environmental Innovation
Gunnar Pippel
International Journal of Innovation Management,
Nr. 1,
2015
Abstract
FuE-Kooperationen spielen eine bedeutende Rolle bei der Schaffung von Umweltinnovationen. Allerdings zeigt uns die Literatur, dass FuE-Kooperationen nicht immer vorteilhaft sind. Daher ist eine differenziertere Betrachtungsweise des Einflusses von FuE-Kooperationen auf die Fähigkeit von Unternehmen, Umweltinnovationen hervorzubringen, notwendig. Das Papier untersucht diesen Zusammenhang und differenziert dabei nach verschiedenen Typen von Kooperationspartnern wie Kunden, Lieferanten, Universitäten, staatlichen Forschungseinrichtungen, Konkurrenten, Beratern und anderen Firmen innerhalb der gleichen Firmengruppe. Zudem wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob Diversität von Kooperationspartnern einen Einfluss auf die Umweltinnovationsfähigkeit von Unternehmen hat. Dabei werden Daten von 2337 deutschen Unternehmen für eine Regressionsanalyse verwendet. Deutlich wird, dass FuE-Kooperationen mit Kunden, Lieferanten, Universitäten, staatlichen Forschungseinrichtungen, Beratern und anderen Firmen innerhalb der gleichen Firmengruppe einen signifikant positiven Einfluss auf die Umweltinnovationsfähigkeit haben. FuE-Kooperationen mit Konkurrenten haben keinen signifikanten Einfluss. Die Diversität von FuE-Kooperationspartnern hat ebenfalls einen signifikant positiven Einfluss auf die Umweltinnovationsfähigkeit.
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Corporate Taxation and Firm Location in Germany
Götz Zeddies
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
German Fiscal Federalism is characterized by a high degree of fiscal equalization which lowers the efficiency of local tax administration. Currently, a reform of the fiscal equalization scheme is on the political agenda. One option is to grant federal states the right to raise surtaxes on statutory tax rates set by the central government in order to reduce the equalization rate. In such an environment, especially those federal states with lower economic performance would have to raise comparatively high surtaxes. With capital mobility, this could further lower economic performance and thus tax revenues. Although statutory tax rates are so far identical across German federal states, corporate tax burden differs for several reasons. This paper tries to identify the impact of such differences on firm location. As can be shown, effective corporate taxation did seemingly not have a significant impact on firm location across German federal states.
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Network Positioning, Co-Location or Both?
Muhamed Kudic
Innovation Networks in the German Laser Industry. Springer Cham,
2015
Abstract
Previous research indicates that firm innovativeness can either be determined by a firm’s position within the network dimension or by its position within the geographical dimension. Integrative studies addressing both distinct and combined proximity effects remains rare (cf. Whittington et al. 2009). Thus, we address in this Chapter the following research question: Are firm-level innovation outcomes positively or negatively related to network positioning effects, geographical co-location effects or combined proximity effects; and if the latter case is true, are the combined effects substitutional or complementary in nature? Panel data count models with fixed and random effects were used to analyze a firm’s innovative performance as measured by patent application counts. This last empirical analysis is organized as follows: We start with a short introduction in Sect. 12.1. Next, we provide a brief discussion of theoretical background in Sect. 12.2. In Sect. 12.3 we introduce our conceptual framework and derive our hypotheses. In Sect. 12.4 we introduce the data and methods used. Next, we outline the estimation strategy and report our empirical results in Sect. 12.5. Finally, we discuss our findings and conclude with a number of critical remarks in Sect. 12.6.
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Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity
Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ron S. Jarmin, Josh Lerner, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review,
Nr. 12,
2014
Abstract
Private equity critics claim that leveraged buyouts bring huge job losses and few gains in operating performance. To evaluate these claims, we construct and analyze a new dataset that covers US buyouts from 1980 to 2005. We track 3,200 target firms and their 150,000 establishments before and after acquisition, comparing to controls defined by industry, size, age, and prior growth. Buyouts lead to modest net job losses but large increases in gross job creation and destruction. Buyouts also bring TFP gains at target firms, mainly through accelerated exit of less productive establishments and greater entry of highly productive ones.
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College Choice Allocation Mechanisms: Structural Estimates and Counterfactuals
J.-R. Carvalho, T. Magnac, Qizhou Xiong
Abstract
We evaluate a simple allocation mechanism of students to majors at college entry that was commonly used in universities in Brazil in the 1990s and 2000s. Students first chose a single major and then took exams that select them in or out of the chosen major. The literature analyzing student placement, points out that this decentralized mechanism is not stable and is not strategy-proof. This means that some pairs of major & students can be made better off and that students tend to disguise their preferences using such a mechanism. We build up a model of performance and school choices in which expectations are carefully specified and we estimate it using cross-section data reporting choices between two medical schools and grade performances at the entry exams. Given those estimates, we evaluate changes in selection and students’ expected utilities when other mechanisms are implemented. Results highlight the importance of strategic motives and redistributive effects of changes of the allocation mechanisms.
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A Community College Instructor Like Me: Race and Ethnicity Interactions in the Classroom
Robert W. Fairlie, Florian Hoffmann, Philip Oreopoulos
American Economic Review,
Nr. 8,
2014
Abstract
Administrative data from a large and diverse community college are used to examine if underrepresented minority students benefit from taking courses with underrepresented minority instructors. To identify racial interactions we estimate models that include both student and classroom fixed effects and focus on students with limited choice in courses. We find that the performance gap in terms of class dropout rates and grade performance between white and underrepresented minority students falls by 20 to 50 percent when taught by an underrepresented minority instructor. We also find these interactions affect longer term outcomes such as subsequent course selection, retention, and degree completion.
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Financial Incentives and Loan Officer Behavior: Multitasking and Allocation of Effort Under an Incomplete Contract
Patrick Behr, Alejandro H. Drexler, Reint E. Gropp, Andre Guettler
Abstract
In this paper we investigate the implications of providing loan officers with a compensation structure that rewards loan volume and penalizes poor performance versus a fixed wage unrelated to performance. We study detailed transaction information for more than 45,000 loans issued by 240 loan officers of a large commercial bank in Europe. We examine the three main activities that loan officers perform: monitoring, originating, and screening. We find that when the performance of their portfolio deteriorates, loan officers increase their effort to monitor existing borrowers, reduce loan origination, and approve a higher fraction of loan applications. These loans, however, are of above-average quality. Consistent with the theoretical literature on multitasking in incomplete contracts, we show that loan officers neglect activities that are not directly rewarded under the contract, but are in the interest of the bank. In addition, while the response by loan officers constitutes a rational response to a time allocation problem, their reaction to incentives appears myopic in other dimensions.
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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators
Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen, Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 4,
2014
Abstract
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
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Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion - Evidence from Building Energy E fficiency Standards in Germany
Makram El-Shagi, Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Discussionpapers des DIW Berlin,
Nr. 1371,
2014
Abstract
The impact of environmental regulation on technology diffusion and innovations is studied using a unique data set of German residential buildings. We analyze how energy effi ciency regulations, in terms of minimum standards, affects energy-use in newly constructed buildings and how it induces innovation in the residential-building industry. The data used consists of a large sample of German apartment houses built between 1950 and 2005. Based on this information, we determine their real energy requirements from energy performance certificates and energy billing information. We develop a new measure for regulation intensity and apply a panel-error-correction regression model to energy requirements of low and high quality housing. Our findings suggest that regulation significantly impacts technology adoption in low quality housing. This, in turn, induces improvements in the high quality segment where innovators respond to market signals.
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