Import Shocks and Voting Behavior in Europe Revisited
Annika Backes, Steffen Müller
European Journal of Political Economy,
June
2024
Abstract
We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.
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Who Benefits from Place-based Policies? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
Philipp Grunau, Florian Hoffmann, Thomas Lemieux, Mirko Titze
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 11,
2024
Abstract
We study the wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that exploits conditionally exogenous EU-wide rules governing the program parameters at the regional level. The place-based program subsidizes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. The analysis uses matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. These rich data enable us to study the incidence of the place-based program on different groups of individuals. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local area level are slightly larger than establishment-level estimates, suggesting limited spillover effects. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25,000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program.
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Import Shocks and Voting Behavior in Europe Revisited
Annika Backes, Steffen Müller
Abstract
We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.
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IWH-Insolvenzforschung
IWH-Insolvenzforschung Die IWH-Insolvenzforschungsstelle bündelt die...
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Europas populistische Parteien im Aufwind
Europas populistische Parteien im Aufwind: die dunkle Seite von Globalisierung und technologischem Wandel? ...
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Minimum Wages, Productivity, and Reallocation
Mirja Hälbig, Matthias Mertens, Steffen Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 8,
2023
Abstract
We study the productivity effect of the German national minimum wage combining administrative firm datasets. We analyze firm- and market-level effects, considering output price changes, factor substitution, firm entry and exit, labor reallocation, and short- versus long-run effects. We document higher firm productivity even net of output price increases. Productivity gains are persistent in manufacturing and service sectors. The minimum wage also increased manufacturing productivity at the aggregate level. Neither firm entry and exit nor other forms of employment reallocation between firms contributed to these gains. Instead, aggregate productivity gains from the minimum wage solely stem from within-firm productivity improvements.
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one...
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Who Buffers Income Losses after Job Displacement? The Role of Alternative Income Sources, the Family, and the State ...
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Schultz wp
The Minimum Wage Effects on Skilled Crafts Sector in Saxony-Anhalt ...
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