Spillover Effects of Spatial Growth Poles - a Reconciliation of Conflicting Policy Targets?
Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze, Joachim Ragnitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 8,
2007
Abstract
Regional economic policy faces the challenge of two competing policy goals - reducing regional economic disparities vs. promoting economic growth. The allocation of public funds has to weigh these goals particularly under the restriction of scarce financial re- sources. If, however, some region turns out to be a regional growth pole with positive spillovers to its disadvantaged periphery, regional policies could be designed to recon- cile the conflicting targets. In this case, peripheral regions could indirectly participate in the economic development of their growing cores. We start our investigation by defining and identifying such growth poles among German regions on the NUTS 3 administrative level based on spatial and sectoral effects. Using cluster analysis, we determine significant characteristics for the general identification of growth poles. Patterns in the sectoral change are identified by means of the change in the employment. Finally, we analyze whether and to what extent these growth poles ex- ert spatial spillover effects on neighbouring regions and thus mitigate contradictory in- terests in regional public policy. For this purpose, we apply a Spatial-Cross-Regressive- Model (SCR-Model) including the change in the secondary sector which allows to con- sider functional economic relations on the administrative level chosen (NUTS 3).
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Systematic Mispricing in European Equity Prices?
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 6,
2007
Abstract
One empirical argument that has been around for some time and that clearly contra- dicts equity market efficiency is that market prices seem too volatile to be optimal estimates of the present value of future discounted cash flows. Based on this, it is deduced that systematic pricing errors occur in equity markets which hence can not be efficient in the Effcient Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the underlying assumptions, which are being employed to estimate the present value of cash flows. Using monthly data for three investment style indices from an integrated European Equity market, all usual assumptions are dropped. This is achieved by employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and De Long. In extension to Barsky and De Long, the discount rate is not assumed at some arbitrary level, but it is estimated from the data. In this manner, the empirical results do not rely on the prerequisites of sta- tionary dividends, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably, but is not eliminated. Furthermore, it can be seen that the resulting discount factors for the three in- vestment style indices can not be considered equal, which, on a risk-adjusted basis, indicates performance differences in the investment strategies and hence stands in contradiction to an efficient market. Finally, the estimated discount rates under- went a plausibility check, by comparing their general movement to a market based interest rate. Besides the most recent data, the estimated discount rates match the movements of market interest rates fairly well.
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Schätzunsicherheit oder Korrelation, Welche Risikokomponente sollten Unternehmen bei der Bewertung von Kreditportfoliorisiken wann berücksichtigen?
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2007
Abstract
Die Bewertung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten von Ratingklassen, basierend auf historischen Daten, ist mit Schätzunsicherheit verbunden. Zur Bewertung dieser Unsicherheit werden in der Literatur Konfidenzintervalle diskutiert. Diesen liegen allerdings Annahmen bezüglich der Abhängigkeiten zwischen einzelnen Forderungen zugrunde, die im Widerspruch zu den Annahmen der gängigen Kreditportfoliomodelle stehen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird anhand von Simulationsstudien gezeigt, dass eine Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit in kleinen Portfolios gerechtfertigt sein kann, auch wenn dafür Abhängigkeiten vernachlässigt werden müssen. Die Modellierung der Schätzunsicherheit beruht hier auf der Idee der Konfidenzintervalle und der ihnen zugrundeliegenden Verteilungen. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit sind vor allem für die Modellierung von Forderungsportfolios in Unternehmen von Interesse.
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What Determines the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-006,
Nr. 6,
2007
Abstract
We assess the efficiency of regional innovation systems (RIS) in Germany by means of a knowledge production function. This function relates private sector research and development (R&D) activity in a region to the number of inventions that have been registered by residents of that region. Different measures and estimation approaches lead to rather similar assessments. We find that both spillovers within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector R&D in the respective region. It is not the mere presence and size of public research institutions, but rather the intensity of interactions between private and public sector R&D that leads to high RIS efficiency. We find that relationship between the diversity of a regions’ industry structure and the efficiency of its innovation system is inversely u-shaped. Regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Universities and Innovation in Space
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Industry and Innovation,
Nr. 2,
2007
Abstract
We investigate the role of universities as a knowledge source for regional innovation processes. The contribution of universities is tested on the level of German NUTS‐3 regions (Kreise) by using a variety of indicators. We find that the intensity and quality of the research conducted by the universities have a significant effect on regional innovative output while pure size is unimportant. Therefore, a policy that wants to promote regional innovation processes by building up universities should place substantial emphasis on the intensity and quality of the research conducted there. We also find the effects of universities to be concentrated in space. Obviously, the geographical proximity to particular knowledge sources is important for regional innovative activities.
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Local Government Control and Efficiency of the Water Industry: An Empirical Analysis of Water Suppliers in East Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 3,
2007
Abstract
The paper deals with the effects of local governments’ interference with business affairs of publicly owned utilities. A partial model is presented to illustrate the consequences of “democratic control” for the public managers’ effort and the efficiency of local public production. To check the theoretical results empirically, a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) is carried out for a sample of East German water suppliers. The organisational form is used as a measure for the degree of municipal control. The results of the OLS- and Tobit regression indicate an efficiency-enhancing effect of organisational forms with less distinctive control options for local politicians.
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Inventory and analysis of national public policies that stimulate biotechnology research, its exploitation and commercialisation by industry in Europe in the period 2002–2005: Final Report
Inventory and analysis of national public policies that stimulate research in biotechnology, its exploitation and commercialisation by industry in Europe in the period 2002–2005,
2007
Abstract
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Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
Ähnlich wie in anderen europäischen Ländern wurde der Einsatz von befristeten Beschäftigungsverhältnissen in Deutschland seit den 1980ern vereinfacht. Als Folge dieser Vereinfachungen nimmt die Bedeutung dieser Beschäftigungsform als Instrument zur Flexibilisierung der Arbeitsnachfrage gerade bei geringqualifiziert Beschäftigten zu. Obwohl die Möglichkeit von Befristungen Chancen für Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer eröffnet, wird in der Literatur argumentiert, dass befristete Beschäftigungsverhältnisse eine Art „Sackgasse“ darstellen und mit geringeren Investitionen in berufliche Weiterbildung verbunden sind. In diesem Beitrag wird anhand der Daten des Mikrozensus 2004 untersucht, welchen Einfluss befristete Arbeitsverträge auf die Beteiligung an beruflicher Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen haben. Die empirische Analyse wird mit Hilfe eines rekursiven bivariaten Probitmodells durchgeführt. Aus den Ergebnissen lässt sich schließen, dass geringqualifiziert Beschäftigte mit befristeten Arbeitsverträgen keinen systematischen Nachteil gegenüber unbefristet Beschäftigten beim Zugang zu beruflicher Weiterbildung haben.
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Grenzen des Wettbewerbs im Gesundheitswesen
Ingmar Kumpmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 1,
2008
Abstract
Viele Gesundheitsökonomen fordern mehr Wettbewerb im Gesundheitswesen. Damit ist ein stärkerer Wettbewerb zwischen Krankenkassen um Versicherte und zwischen Leistungserbringern um Verträge mit Kassen gemeint. Vernachlässigt wird dabei jedoch der für die medizinische Qualität wichtige Wettbewerb der Leistungserbringer um Patienten. Dieser steht mit den beiden zuerst genannten Wettbewerbsfeldern im Konflikt. Auch die vorhandene empirische Evidenz ist uneindeutig was die Kosten- und Qualitätseffekte des Wettbewerbs im Gesundheitswesen betrifft. Die einfache Forderung nach „mehr Wettbewerb“ wird somit der Komplexität des Gesundheitswesens nicht gerecht.
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Does too much Transparency of Central Banks Prevent Agents from Using their Private Information Efficiently?
Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 16,
2007
Abstract
This paper analyses in a simple global games framework welfare effects of different communication strategies of a central bank: it can either publish no more than its overall assessment of the economy or be more transparent, giving detailed reasons for this assessment. The latter strategy is shown to be superior because it enables agents to use private information and to be less dependent on common knowledge. This result holds true even if the strategies of agents are strategic complements, for which case it has been argued that too much transparency might induce agents to neglect their private knowledge.
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