Robot Adoption at German Plants
Liuchun Deng, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
Abstract
Using a newly collected dataset of robot use at the plant level from 2014 to 2018, we provide the first microscopic portrait of robotisation in Germany and study the potential determinants of robot adoption. Our descriptive analysis uncovers five stylised facts concerning both extensive and, perhaps more importantly, intensive margin of plant-level robot use: (1) Robot use is relatively rare with only 1.55% German plants using robots in 2018. (2) The distribution of robots is highly skewed. (3) New robot adopters contribute substantially to the recent robotisation. (4) Robot users are exceptional along several dimensions of plant-level characteristics. (5) Heterogeneity in robot types matters. Our regression results further suggest plant size, low-skilled labour share, and exporter status to have strong and positive effect on future probability of robot adoption. Manufacturing plants impacted by the introduction of minimum wage in 2015 are also more likely to adopt robots. However, controlling for plant size, we find that plant-level productivity has no, if not negative, impact on robot adoption.
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Are Bank Capital Requirements Optimally Set? Evidence from Researchers’ Views
Gene Ambrocio, Iftekhar Hasan, Esa Jokivuolle, Kim Ristolainen
Journal of Financial Stability,
October
2020
Abstract
We survey 149 leading academic researchers on bank capital regulation. The median (average) respondent prefers a 10% (15%) minimum non-risk-weighted equity-to-assets ratio, which is considerably higher than the current requirement. North Americans prefer a significantly higher equity-to-assets ratio than Europeans. We find substantial support for the new forms of regulation introduced in Basel III, such as liquidity requirements. Views are most dispersed regarding the use of hybrid assets and bail-inable debt in capital regulation. 70% of experts would support an additional market-based capital requirement. When investigating factors driving capital requirement preferences, we find that the typical expert believes a five percentage points increase in capital requirements would “probably decrease” both the likelihood and social cost of a crisis with “minimal to no change” to loan volumes and economic activity. The best predictor of capital requirement preference is how strongly an expert believes that higher capital requirements would increase the cost of bank lending.
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Banking Deregulation and Household Consumption of Durables
H. Evren Damar, Ian Lange, Caitlin McKennie, Mirko Moro
Abstract
We exploit the spatial and temporal variation of the staggered introduction of interstate banking deregulation across the U.S. to study the relationship between credit constraints and consumption of durables. Using the American Housing Survey from 1981 to 1993, we link the timing of these reforms with evidence of a credit expansion and household responses on many margins. We find robust evidence that households are more likely to purchase new appliances and invest in home renovations and modifications after the deregulation. These durable goods allowed households to consume less electricity and spend less time in domestic activities after the reforms.
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Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models
Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
Abstract
We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does not rationalize the positive comovement of consumption and investment observed in recessions associated with an epidemic. Introducing monopolistic competition into the neoclassical model remedies this shortcoming even when prices are completely flexible. Finally, sticky prices lead to a larger recession but do not fundamentally alter the predictions of the monopolistic competition model.
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Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis, Thomas K. Lee
Abstract
This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures.
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Cultural Resilience and Economic Recovery: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina
Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia, Felix Noth
Abstract
This paper investigates the critical role of culture for economic recovery after natural disasters. Using Hurricane Katrina as our laboratory, we find a significant adverse treatment effect for plant-level productivity. However, local religious adherence and larger shares of ancestors with disaster experiences mutually mitigate this detrimental effect from the disaster. Religious adherence further dampens anxiety after Hurricane Katrina, which potentially spur economic recovery. We also detect this effect on the aggregate county level. More religious counties recover faster in terms of population, new establishments, and GDP.
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Immigration and Entrepreneurship in the United States
Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin Jones, J. Daniel Kim, Javier Miranda
Abstract
Immigration can expand labour supply and create greater competition for native-born workers. But immigrants may also start new firms, expanding labour demand. This paper uses U.S. administrative data and other data resources to study the role of immigrants in entrepreneurship. We ask how often immigrants start companies, how many jobs these firms create, and how these firms compare with those founded by U.S.-born individuals. A simple model provides a measurement framework for addressing the dual roles of immigrants as founders and workers. The findings suggest that immigrants act more as "job creators" than "job takers" and that non-U.S. born founders play outsized roles in U.S. high-growth entrepreneurship.
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Phillips Curve and Output Expectations: New Perspectives from the Euro Zone
Giuliana Passamani, Alessandro Sardone, Roberto Tamborini
DEM Working Papers,
Nr. 6,
2020
publiziert in: Empirica
Abstract
When referring to the inflation trends over the last decade, economists speak of "puzzles": a “missing disinflation” puzzle in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and a ”missing inflation” one in the years of recovery to nowadays. To this, a specific "excess deflation" puzzle may be added during the post-crisis depression in the Euro Zone. The standard Phillips Curve model, in this context, has failed as the basic tool to produce reliable forecasts of future price developments, leading many scholars to consider this instrument to be no more adequate. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this literature through the development of a newly specified Phillips Curve model, in which the inflation-expectation component is rationally related to the business cycle. The model is tested with the Euro Zone data 1999-2019 showing that inflation turns out to be consistently determined by output gaps and and experts' survey-based forecast errors, and that the puzzles can be explained by the interplay between these two variables.
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Firm Productivity Report
Johannes Amlung, Tommaso Bighelli, Roman Blyzniuk, Marco Christophori, Jonathan Deist, Filippo di Mauro, Annalisa Ferrando, Mirja Hälbig, Peter Haug, Sergio Inferrera, Tibor Lalinsky, Phillip Meinen, Marc Melitz, Matthias Mertens, Ottavia Papagalli, Verena Plümpe, Roberta Serafini
CompNet - The Competitive Research Network,
2020
Abstract
As we enter a second phase of the COVID-pandemic, in which we attempt to reopen economies and foster growth, investigating the efficiency and productivity of firms becomes essential if we wish to design the appropriate policies. The 2020 Flagship Firm Productivity report provides a comprehensive account of how productivity is changing –and what is driving those changes –in Europe, drawing from granular firm-level information.Although it was written before the crisis erupted, this report can therefore offer critical insights to current policymaking andprovides grounds for future research.
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The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets
Shai B. Bernstein, Abhishek Dev, Josh Lerner
Journal of Financial Economics,
Nr. 2,
2020
Abstract
This paper explores the creation and evolution of new stock exchanges around the world geared toward entrepreneurial companies, known as second-tier exchanges. Using hand-collected novel data, we show the proliferation of these exchanges in many countries, their significant volume of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), and lower listing requirements. Shareholder protection strongly predicted exchange success, even in countries with high levels of venture capital activity, patenting, and financial market development. Better shareholder protection allowed younger, less-profitable, but faster-growing, companies to raise more capital. These results highlight the importance of institutions in enabling the provision of entrepreneurial capital to young companies.
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