Volatilität, Wachstum und Finanzkrisen
Diese Forschungsgruppe analysiert die Entstehung von Instabilitäten im Finanzsystem und die realökonomischen Konsequenzen von Finanzkrisen. Dabei werden kausale Reaktionen gesamtwirtschaftlicher Größen auf makroökonomische Schocks identifiziert. Frühwarnmodelle beschreiben das zyklische Auftreten von Vulnerabilitäten im Finanzsystem.
IWH-Datenprojekt: Financial Stability Indicators in Europe
ForschungsclusterFinanzstabilität und Regulierung
01.2018 ‐ 12.2018
International Monetary Policy Transmission
01.2017 ‐ 12.2018
Early-warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
Central and Eastern European Countries in the Global Financial Crisis: A Typical Twin Crisis?
in: Post-Communist Economies, Nr. 4, 2011
This paper shows that during the Great Recession, banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help explaining the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises, and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. It is shown that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understand differing effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters if international activities are organized by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic States differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.
Inflation and Relative Price Variability in the Euro Area: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model
in: Applied Economics, Nr. 4, 2012
The impact of inflation on Relative Price Variability (RPV) generates an important channel for real effects of inflation. This article provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and RPV in the euro area. Stirred by the widespread use of inflation caps or target bands in monetary policy practice, we are particularly interested in threshold effects of inflation. In line with the predictions of monetary search models, our results indicate that expected inflation significantly increases RPV only if inflation is either very low (below 0.95% per annum (p.a.)) or very high (above 4.96% p.a.).
Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields
in: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2010
We argue that a “static“ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not conducive to assessing stability of financial systems in euro-candidate countries. Instead, we advocate a dynamic approach to assessing interest rate convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001-January 22, 2009, sample period. Our results show a varied degree of the relationship between domestic and eurozone sovereign bond yields, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. We find some divergence of relative bond yields since the EU accession.
A Cost Efficient International Lender of Last Resort
in: International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2010
The current reform of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) lending instruments has transformed the Fund towards an international lender of last resort (ILOLR). Current research discusses various general frameworks for installing an ILOLR. However, it remains unclear how the ILOLR should actually operate. This paper discusses six different options for the construction of an ILOLR that supports central banks during currency crises. The paper concludes that the most cost efficient version of the ILOLR would be direct intervention by the IMF using IMF resources, with the option of using additional reserves from central banks. The paper considers measures of cost efficiency, such as cost of borrowing, intervention, and sterilization and moral hazard problems.
Potential Effects of Basel II on the Transmission from Currency Crises to Banking Crises – The Case of South Korea
in: Journal of Money, Nr. 13, 2010
In this paper we evaluate potential effects of the Basel II accord on preventing the transmission from currency crises to banking crises by analyzing the South Korean crisis of 1997. We show that regulatory capital reserves under Basel II would have been lower than those under Basel I, and that therefore Basel II would have had adverse effects on the development of the crisis. Furthermore we investigate whether the behavior of rating agencies has changed since the East Asian crisis. We find no evidence that rating agencies have started to take micro-mismatches into account. Thus, we have reservations concerning the effectiveness of Basel II.