25 Jahre IWH

Professor Dr. Tobias Knedlik

Professor Dr. Tobias Knedlik
Aktuelle Position

seit 4/14

Research Professor

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 2014

Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. internationale Wirtschaft

Hochschule Fulda 

Forschungsschwerpunkte

  • Europäische und internationale Wirtschaftspolitik: insbesondere Finanzmarktkrisen
  • Außenwirtschaft, Währungspolitik, internationale Organisationen
  • Wachstum und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung

Tobias Knedlik ist Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere internationale Wirtschaft an der Hochschule Fulda. Er hat Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Universität Würzburg und an der University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, Südafrika studiert. Anschließend war er von 2002 bis 2005 wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für Weltwirtschaft und Internationales Management der Universität Bremen.

Die Promotion erfolgte 2005 mit einer Dissertation zum Thema Optimierung der Geldpolitik in Schwellenländern durch einen International-Lender-of-Last-Resort. Von 2005 bis 2014 war er wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle. Daneben war er Visiting Professor an verschiedenen Universitäten (Universität Erfurt, Addis Ababa University in Äthiopien, University of the Free State in Südafrika).

Auf dieser Webseite sind im Rahmen der Kooperation mit dem IWH entstandene Veröffentlichungen gelistet. Eine vollständige Publikationsliste ist auf der Homepage des Autors abrufbar.

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Professor Dr. Tobias Knedlik
Professor Dr. Tobias Knedlik
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Publikationen

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The Impact of Preferences on Early Warning Systems - The Case of the European Commission's Scoreboard

Tobias Knedlik

in: European Journal of Political Economy, 2014

Abstract

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system – missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. These preferences might differ with the institutional setting. Such an analysis is done for the first time in this article for early warning systems in general by using a standard signals approach, including a preference-based optimisation approach, to set thresholds. It is shown that, in general, the thresholds of the Commission’s Scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals), as compared to a neutral stand. Based on political economy considerations the result could have been expected.

Publikation lesen

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Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach

Makram El-Shagi Tobias Knedlik Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Nr. 35, 2013

Abstract

The signals approach as an early-warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it cannot distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we test the null hypothesis of no correlation between indicators and crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose bootstraps specifically tailored to the characteristics of the respective datasets. We find (1) that previous applications of the signals approach yield economically meaningful results; (2) that composite indicators aggregating information contained in individual indicators add value to the signals approach; and (3) that indicators which are found to be significant in-sample usually perform similarly well out-of-sample.

Publikation lesen

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Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe

Tobias Knedlik Gregor von Schweinitz

in: Journal of Common Market Studies, Nr. 5, 2012

Abstract

European authorities and scholars published proposals on which indicators of macroeconomic imbalances might be used to uncover risks for the sustainability of public debt in the European Union. We test the ability of four proposed sets of indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of composite indicators. We find that a broad composite indicator has the highest predictive power. This fact still holds true if equal weights are used for the construction of the composite indicator in order to reflect the uncertainty about the origin of future crises.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

Martina Kämpfe Tobias Knedlik

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 16, 2017

Abstract

The experience of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) during the global financial crisis and in the resulting European debt crises has been largely different from that of other European countries. This paper looks at the specifics of the CEEC in recent history and focuses in particular on the appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure for this group of countries. In doing so, the macroeconomic situation in the CEEC is highlighted and macroeconomic problems faced by these countries are extracted. The findings are compared to the results of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure of the European Commission. It is shown that while the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure correctly identifies some of the problems, it understates or overstates other problems. This is due to the specific construction of the broadened surveillance procedure, which largely disregarded the specifics of catching-up economies.

Publikation lesen

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Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?

Tobias Knedlik Rolf Scheufele

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 17, 2007

Abstract

In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast the South African currency crisis of June 2006. In particular we are interested in the out-ofsample performance of these methods. Thus, we choose the latest crisis to conduct an out-of-sample experiment. In sum, the signals approach was not able to forecast the outof- sample crisis of correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but just with models, that were based on raw data. Employing a Markov-regime-switching approach also allows to predict the out-of-sample crisis. The answer to the question of which method made the run in forecasting the June 2006 currency crisis is: the Markovswitching approach, since it called most of the pre-crisis periods correctly. However, the “victory” is not straightforward. In-sample, the probit models perform remarkably well and it is also able to detect, at least to some extent, out-of-sample currency crises before their occurrence. It can, therefore, not be recommended to focus on one approach only when evaluating the risk for currency crises.

Publikation lesen

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The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II

Tobias Knedlik Johannes Ströbel

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 21, 2006

Abstract

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die möglichen Effekte der Basel II-Bankenregulierung auf die Transmission von Währungskrisen zu Bankenkrisen. Die Analyse des Beispiels Südkorea zeigt die wichtige Rolle der Unausgeglichenheit von Bankaktiva und -passiva in bezug auf deren Fristigkeit und Währung bei diesem Transmissionsprozess und stellt dar wie Basel II auf die Bankenbilanzen gewirkt hätte. Es wird gezeigt, dass die regulatorischen Kapitalanforderungen unter Basel II, aufgrund der guten Kreditratings im Vorfeld der Krise, geringer gewesen wären als unter Basel I. Dadurch wäre die Krise verschärft worden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird analysiert, ob die Ratingagenturen ihr Verhalten seit dem Versagen bei der Prognose der Asienkrise geändert haben. Dieser Beitrag findet keine empirische Evidenz für eine Berücksichtigung der Unausgeglichenheit in den Bankenbilanzen bei der Ableitung von Ratingergebnissen für Länder. Deshalb muss die Effektivität von Basel II bei der Prävention der Transmission von Währungs- zu Bankenkrisen sowohl im Falle Südkoreas als auch bei möglichen zukünftigen Krisen angezweifelt werden.

Publikation lesen
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