Anpassungsfähigkeit und Resilienz des Finanzsystems

Diese Forschungsgruppe untersucht kritische Aspekte der Anpassungsfähigkeit und Widerstandsfähigkeit von Finanzsystemen. Sie analysiert die Auswirkungen von Naturkatastrophen auf Finanzsysteme, die Auswirkungen politischer Präferenzen für die grüne Transformation und die Bedeutung von Kultur in den Volkswirtschaften.

Forschungscluster
Finanzresilienz und Regulierung

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Professor Dr. Felix Noth
Professor Dr. Felix Noth
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PROJEKTE

08.2022 ‐ 07.2025

OVERHANG: Schuldenüberhang und grüne Investitionen – die Rolle von Banken für den klimafreundlichen Umgang mit emissionsintensiven Anlagenvermögen

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

Ziel von OVERHANG ist es, die Rolle von Banken für den klimafreundlichen Umgang mit emissionsintensiven Anlagevermögen zu untersuchen. Hierdurch sollen politikrelevante Erkenntnisse zu Finanzregulierung, staatlich kontrollierter Kreditvergabe und Finanzstabilität identifiziert sowie eine Sensibilisierung der verschuldeten Akteurinnen und Akteuren erreicht werden.

Projektseite ansehen

Das Projekt wird vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) finanziert.

Professor Michael Koetter, Ph.D.

07.2016 ‐ 12.2018

Relationship Lenders and Unorthodox Monetary Policy: Investment, Employment, and Resource Reallocation Effects

Leibniz-Gemeinschaft

We combine a number of unique and proprietary data sources to measure the impact of relationship lenders and unconventional monetary policy during and after the European sovereign debt crisis on the real economy. Establishing systematic links between different research data centers (Forschungsdatenzentren, FDZ) and central banks with detailed micro-level information on both financial and real activity is the stand-alone proposition of our proposal. The main objective is to permit the identification of causal effects, or their absence, regarding which policies were conducive to mitigate financial shocks and stimulate real economic activities, such as employment, investment, or the closure of plants.

Professor Michael Koetter, Ph.D.
Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2015 ‐ 12.2019

Interactions between Bank-specific Risk and Macroeconomic Performance

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Professor Dr. Felix Noth

Referierte Publikationen

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State Ownership and Financial Statement Comparability

William Francis Xian Gu Iftekhar Hasan Joon Ho Kong

in: Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, im Erscheinen

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates how state ownership affects financial reporting practices in China. Using several measures of state (government) ownership, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase in state ownership decreases financial statement comparability by 36.61%, and the impact is more pronounced when the central authority has majority control of the company. Moreover, lower earnings quality and lower levels of accounting conservatism among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may explain the lower accounting comparability between SOEs and non-SOEs (NSOEs). Additionally, similar (different) managerial objectives converge (diverge) financial statement comparability between SOEs and NSOEs. Last, the geographical locations of firms also contribute to financial statement comparability. We employ a difference-in-differences design, changes regression and entropy balancing to mitigate potential endogeneity bias.

Publikation lesen

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Bank Market Power and Loan Contracts: Empirical Evidence

Iftekhar Hasan Liuling Liu Haizhi Wang Xinting Zhen

in: Economic Notes, im Erscheinen

Abstract

Using a sample of syndicated loan facilities granted to US corporate borrowers from 1987 to 2013, we directly gauge the lead banks’ market power, and test its effects on both price and non‐price terms in loan contracts. We find that bank market power is positively correlated with loan spreads, and the positive relation holds for both non‐relationship loans and relationship loans. In particular, we report that, for relationship loans, lending banks charge lower loan price for borrowing firms with lower switching cost. We further employ a framework accommodating the joint determination of loan contractual terms, and document that the lead banks’ market power is positively correlated with collateral and negatively correlated with loan maturity. In addition, we report a significant and negative relationship between banking power and the number of covenants in loan contracts, and the negative relationship is stronger for relationship loans.

Publikation lesen

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Supranational Rules, National Discretion: Increasing versus Inflating Regulatory Bank Capital?

Reint E. Gropp Thomas Mosk Steven Ongena Ines Simac Carlo Wix

in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Nr. 2, 2024

Abstract

We study how banks use “regulatory adjustments” to inflate their regulatory capital ratios and whether this depends on forbearance on the part of national authorities. Using the 2011 EBA capital exercise as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that banks substantially inflated their levels of regulatory capital via a reduction in regulatory adjustments — without a commensurate increase in book equity and without a reduction in bank risk. We document substantial heterogeneity in regulatory capital inflation across countries, suggesting that national authorities forbear their domestic banks to meet supranational requirements, with a focus on short-term economic considerations.

Publikation lesen

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Does IFRS Information on Tax Loss Carryforwards and Negative Performance Improve Predictions of Earnings and Cash Flows?

Sandra Dreher Sebastian Eichfelder Felix Noth

in: Journal of Business Economics, January 2024

Abstract

We analyze the usefulness of accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance to predict earnings and cash flows. We use hand-collected information on tax loss carryforwards and corresponding deferred taxes from the International Financial Reporting Standards tax footnotes for listed firms from Germany. Our out-of-sample tests show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards does not enhance performance forecasts and typically even worsens predictions. The most likely explanation is model overfitting. Besides, common forecasting approaches that deal with negative performance are prone to prediction errors. We provide a simple empirical specification to account for that problem.

Publikation lesen

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Cultural Norms and Corporate Fraud: Evidence from the Volkswagen Scandal

Iftekhar Hasan Felix Noth Lena Tonzer

in: Journal of Corporate Finance, October 2023

Abstract

We examine a corporate governance role of local culture via its impact on consumer behavior following corporate scandals. Our proxy for culture is the presence of local Protestantism. Exploiting the unexpected nature of the Volkswagen (VW) diesel scandal in September 2015, we show that new registrations of VW cars decline significantly in German counties with a Protestant majority following the VW scandal. Further survey evidence shows that, compared to Catholics, Protestants respond significantly more negatively to fraud but not to environmental issues. Our findings suggest that the enforcement culture in Protestantism facilitates penalizing corporate fraud.

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Arbeitspapiere

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Covered Bonds and Bank Portfolio Rebalancing

Jin Cao Ragnar E. Juelsrud Talina Sondershaus

in: Norges Bank Working Papers, Nr. 6, 2021

Abstract

We use administrative and supervisory data at the bank and loan level to investigate the impact of the introduction of covered bonds on the composition of bank balance sheets and bank risk. Covered bonds, despite being collateralized by mortgages, lead to a shift in bank lending from mortgages to corporate loans. Young and low-rated firms in particular receive more credit, suggesting that overall credit risk increases. At the same time, we find that total balance sheet liquidity increases. We identify the channel in a theoretical model and provide empirical evidence: Banks with low initial liquidity and banks with sufficiently high risk-adjusted return on firm lending drive the results.

Publikation lesen

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Cultural Resilience, Religion, and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 9, 2021

Abstract

This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.

Publikation lesen

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Lender-specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

Franziska Bremus Thomas Krause Felix Noth

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 3, 2021

Abstract

This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger are mortgage, house price, and employment growth. While shocks at the level of shadow banks significantly affect mortgage and house price dynamics, too, they do not matter much for employment.

Publikation lesen

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Trade Shocks, Credit Reallocation and the Role of Specialisation: Evidence from Syndicated Lending

Isabella Müller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 15, 2020

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that banks cut lending to US borrowers as a consequence of a trade shock. This adverse reaction is stronger for banks with higher ex-ante lending to US industries hit by the trade shock. Importantly, I document large heterogeneity in banks‘ reaction depending on their sectoral specialisation. Banks shield industries in which they are specialised in and at the same time reduce the availability of credit to industries they are not specialised in. The latter is driven by low-capital banks and lending to firms that are themselves hit by the trade shock. Banks‘ adjustments have adverse real effects.

Publikation lesen

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Spillovers of Asset Purchases Within the Real Sector: Win-Win or Joy and Sorrow?

Talina Sondershaus

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 22, 2019

Abstract

Events which have an adverse or positive effect on some firms can disseminate through the economy to firms which are not directly affected. By exploiting the first large sovereign bond purchase programme of the ECB, this paper investigates whether more lending to some firms spill over to firms in the surroundings of direct beneficiaries. Firms operating in the same industry and region invest less and reduce employment. The paper shows the importance to consider spillover effects when assessing unconventional monetary policies: Differences between treatment and control groups can be entirely attributed to negative effects on the control group.

Publikation lesen
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