Betriebliche Dynamiken und Beschäftigungsergebnisse

Firmengründungen und -schließungen sind in einer Marktwirtschaft für die Reallokation von Ressourcen, strukturellen Wandel und damit für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung und spielen vor allem im Hinblick auf die wirtschaftliche Transformation Ostdeutschlands eine zentrale Rolle. Gleichzeitig können die mit dem Strukturwandel verbundenen Arbeitsplatzverluste dramatische Folgen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer haben, wie z.B. Arbeitslosigkeit, Einkommensverluste oder eine geringere Arbeitsplatzqualität. Diese Forschungsgruppe untersucht mithilfe mikroökonometrischer Methoden Gründungen, Wachstumsprozesse und das Scheitern von Unternehmen, die Anzahl und Qualität der von Neugründungen geschaffenen Arbeitsplätze und die Folgen von Firmenschließungen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer und Arbeitnehmerinnen, vor allem in Bezug auf Arbeitsmarktergebnisse wie Beschäftigung und Löhne.

Forschungscluster
Produktivität und Institutionen

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Dr. André Diegmann
Dr. André Diegmann
Mitglied - Abteilung Strukturwandel und Produktivität
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PROJEKTE

01.2020 ‐ 06.2024

Europas populistische Parteien im Aufwind: die dunkle Seite von Globalisierung und technologischem Wandel?

VolkswagenStiftung

Die Globalisierung hat zwar allgemein den Wohlstand gesteigert, aber in vielen Regionen Europas auch zu Arbeitslosigkeit, Lohnungleichheit, Abwanderung und Überalterung geführt. Das Projekt untersucht, ob diese ökonomischen Lasten zu Wählerstimmen für populistische Parteien führen.

Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2019 ‐ 06.2022

MICROPROD („Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data“)

Europäische Kommission

Ziel von MICROPROD ist es, zu einem besseren Verständnis der Herausforderungen beizutragen, die die vierte industrielle Revolution in Europa mit sich bringt. Verliert das Produktivitätswachstum im Kontext von Globalisierung und Digitalisierung an Schwung, und wenn ja, warum?

Projektseite ansehen

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 764810.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

07.2018 ‐ 12.2020

Firmenlohndifferentiale in unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten: Die Rolle von Marktmacht und industriellen Beziehungen in der Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten zwischen Arbeitnehmern und Arbeitgebern

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel dieses Projekts ist es, die Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten auf unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten und den Einfluss von Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen wie Tarifbindung und betrieblicher Mitbestimmung auf Firmenlohndifferentiale zu untersuchen. Über die Grundlagenforschung hinaus hat das Projekt damit Potential, wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Debatten zur institutionellen Ausgestaltung des Lohnfindungsprozesses zu informieren.

DFG-Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

02.2019 ‐ 09.2019

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2018 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Fehlende Fachkräfte in Deutschland – Unterschiede in den Betrieben und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018. IAB-Forschungsbericht 10/2019.

Dr. Eva Dettmann

04.2016 ‐ 03.2019

Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte von Insolvenzen

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel des Projekts ist es, erstmals den Prozess und die Folgen des Scheiterns von Unternehmen ausführlich zu analysieren. Insbesondere ist es im Rahmen dieses Projekts erstmals möglich, die Folgen kleinbetrieblicher Insolvenzen zu erforschen, was vor allem deshalb relevant ist, weil Arbeitnehmer in Betrieben mit weniger als zehn Beschäftigten etwa viermal so häufig von Insolvenzen betroffen sind wie Arbeitnehmer in Großbetrieben.

Projektergebnisse im Überblick     Projekt-Website

Dr. Daniel Fackler
Professor Dr. Steffen Müller
Dr. Jens Stegmaier

01.2018 ‐ 12.2018

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2017 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Ausmaß und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2017. IAB-Forschungsbericht 6/2018.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2017 ‐ 09.2017

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2016 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Produktivitätsunterschiede zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2016. IAB-Forschungsbericht 16/2017.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

Referierte Publikationen

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Unions as Insurance: Workplace Unionization and Workers' Outcomes During COVID-19

Nils Braakmann Boris Hirsch

in: Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, im Erscheinen

Abstract

<h3>Abstract We investigate to what extent workplace unionization protects workers from external shocks by preventing involuntary job separations. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a plausibly exogenous shock hitting the whole economy, we compare workers who worked in unionized and non-unionized workplaces directly before the pandemic in a difference-in-differences framework. We find that unionized workers were substantially more likely to remain working for their pre-COVID employer and to be in employment. This greater employment stability was not traded off against lower working hours or labor income.</h3>

Publikation lesen

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Robot Adoption at German Plants

Liuchun Deng Verena Plümpe Jens Stegmaier

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, im Erscheinen

Abstract

Using a newly collected dataset at the plant level from 2014 to 2018, we provide the first microscopic portrait of robotization in Germany and study the correlates of robot adoption. Our descriptive analysis uncovers five stylized facts: (1) Robot use is relatively rare. (2) The distribution of robots is highly skewed. (3) New robot adopters contribute substantially to the recent robotization. (4) Robot users are exceptional. (5) Heterogeneity in robot types matters. Our regression results further suggest plant size, high-skilled labor share, exporter status, and labor shortage to be strongly associated with the future probability of robot adoption.

Publikation lesen

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Industry Mix, Local Labor Markets, and the Incidence of Trade Shocks

Steffen Müller Jens Stegmaier Moises Yi

in: Journal of Labor Economics, im Erscheinen

Abstract

We analyze how skill transferability and the local industry mix affect the adjustment costs of workers hit by a trade shock. Using German administrative data and novel measures of economic distance we construct an index of labor market absorptiveness that captures the degree to which workers from a particular industry are able to reallocate into other jobs. Among manufacturing workers, we find that the earnings loss associated with increased import exposure is much higher for those who live in the least absorptive regions. We conclude that the local industry composition plays an important role in the adjustment processes of workers.

Publikation lesen

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Can Mentoring Alleviate Family Disadvantage in Adolescence? A Field Experiment to Improve Labor-Market Prospects

Sven Resnjanskij Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold Ludger Woessmann Katharina Wedel

in: Journal of Political Economy, im Erscheinen

Abstract

We study a mentoring program that aims to improve the labor-market prospects of school-attending adolescents from disadvantaged families by offering them a university-student mentor. Our RCT investigates program effectiveness on three outcome dimensions that are highly predictive of later labor-market success: math grades, patience/social skills, and labor-market orientation. For low-SES adolescents, the mentoring increases a combined index of the outcomes by over half a standard deviation after one year, with significant increases in each dimension. Part of the treatment effect is mediated by establishing mentors as attachment figures who provide guidance for the future. Effects on grades and labor-market orientation, but not on patience/social skills, persist three years after program start. By that time, the mentoring also improves early realizations of school-to-work transitions for low-SES adolescents. The mentoring is not effective for higher-SES adolescents. The results show that substituting lacking family support by other adults can help disadvantaged children at adolescent age.

Publikation lesen

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Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

Adnan Efendic Dejan Kovač Jacob N. Shapiro

in: Defence and Peace Economics, Nr. 8, 2023

Abstract

We investigate the long-term relationship between conflict-related migration and individual socioeconomic inequality. Looking at the post-conflict environment of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a former Yugoslav state most heavily impacted by the wars of the early 1990s, the paper focuses on differences in educational performance and income between four groups: migrants, internally displaced persons, former external migrants, and those who did not move. The analysis leverages a municipality-representative survey (n&nbsp;≈&nbsp;6,000) that captured self-reported education and income outcomes as well as migration histories. We find that individuals with greater exposure to conflict had systematically worse educational performance and lower earnings two decades after the war. Former external migrants now living in BiH have better educational and economic outcomes than those who did not migrate, but these advantages are smaller for external migrants who were forced to move. We recommend that policies intended to address migration-related discrepancies should be targeted on the basis of individual and family experiences caused by conflict.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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Income Shocks, Political Support and Voting Behaviour

Richard Upward Peter Wright

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 1, 2024

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.

Publikation lesen

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Safety Net or Helping Hand? The Effect of Job Search Assistance and Compensation on Displaced Workers

Daniel Fackler Jens Stegmaier Richard Upward

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 18, 2023

Abstract

We provide the first systematic evidence on the effectiveness of a contested policy in Germany to help displaced workers. So-called “transfer companies” (<i>Transfergesellschaften</i>) employ displaced workers for a fixed period, during which time workers are provided with job-search assistance and are paid a wage which is a substantial fraction of their pre-displacement wage. Using rich and accurate data on workers’ employment patterns before and after displacement, we compare the earnings and employment outcomes of displaced workers who entered transfer companies with those that did not. Workers can choose whether or not to accept a position in a transfer company, and therefore we use the availability of a transfer company at the establishment level as an IV in a model of one-sided compliance. Using an event study, we find that workers who enter a transfer company have significantly worse post-displacement outcomes, but we show that this is likely to be the result of negative selection: workers who lack good outside opportunities are more likely to choose to enter the transfer company. In contrast, ITT and IV estimates indicate that the use of a transfer company has a positive and significant effect on employment rates five years after job loss, but no significant effect on earnings. In addition, the transfer company provides significant additional compensation to displaced workers in the first 12 months after job loss.

Publikation lesen

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Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

Ufuk Akcigit Harun Alp André Diegmann Nicolas Serrano-Velarde

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 17, 2023

Abstract

This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term.

Publikation lesen

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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 16, 2023

Abstract

The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.

Publikation lesen

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Do Role Models Matter in Large Classes? New Evidence on Gender Match Effects in Higher Education

Stephan Maurer Guido Schwerdt Simon Wiederhold

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 14, 2023

Abstract

It is well established that female students perform better when taught by female professors. However, little is known about the mechanisms explaining these gender match effects. Using administrative records from a German public university, which cover all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018, we show that gender match effects are sizable in smaller classes, but are absent in larger classes. These results suggest that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are crucial for gender match effects to emerge. In contrast, the mere fact that one’s professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students.

Publikation lesen
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