Betriebliche Dynamiken und Beschäftigungsergebnisse

Firmengründungen und -schließungen sind in einer Marktwirtschaft für die Reallokation von Ressourcen, strukturellen Wandel und damit für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung und spielen vor allem im Hinblick auf die wirtschaftliche Transformation Ostdeutschlands eine zentrale Rolle. Gleichzeitig können die mit dem Strukturwandel verbundenen Arbeitsplatzverluste dramatische Folgen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer haben, wie z.B. Arbeitslosigkeit, Einkommensverluste oder eine geringere Arbeitsplatzqualität. Diese Forschungsgruppe untersucht mithilfe mikroökonometrischer Methoden Gründungen, Wachstumsprozesse und das Scheitern von Unternehmen, die Anzahl und Qualität der von Neugründungen geschaffenen Arbeitsplätze und die Folgen von Firmenschließungen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer und Arbeitnehmerinnen, vor allem in Bezug auf Arbeitsmarktergebnisse wie Beschäftigung und Löhne.

Forschungscluster
Produktivität und Innovationen

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Dr. André Diegmann
Dr. André Diegmann
Mitglied - Abteilung Strukturwandel und Produktivität
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PROJEKTE

01.2020 ‐ 12.2023

Europas populistische Parteien im Aufwind: die dunkle Seite von Globalisierung und technologischem Wandel?

VolkswagenStiftung

Die Globalisierung hat zwar allgemein den Wohlstand gesteigert, aber in vielen Regionen Europas auch zu Arbeitslosigkeit, Lohnungleichheit, Abwanderung und Überalterung geführt. Das Projekt untersucht, ob diese ökonomischen Lasten zu Wählerstimmen für populistische Parteien führen.

Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2019 ‐ 12.2021

MICROPROD („Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data“)

Europäische Kommission

Ziel von MICROPROD ist es, zu einem besseren Verständnis der Herausforderungen beizutragen, die die vierte industrielle Revolution in Europa mit sich bringt. Verliert das Produktivitätswachstum im Kontext von Globalisierung und Digitalisierung an Schwung, und wenn ja, warum?

Projektseite ansehen

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 764810.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

07.2018 ‐ 12.2020

Firmenlohndifferentiale in unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten: Die Rolle von Marktmacht und industriellen Beziehungen in der Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten zwischen Arbeitnehmern und Arbeitgebern

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel dieses Projekts ist es, die Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten auf unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten und den Einfluss von Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen wie Tarifbindung und betrieblicher Mitbestimmung auf Firmenlohndifferentiale zu untersuchen. Über die Grundlagenforschung hinaus hat das Projekt damit Potential, wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Debatten zur institutionellen Ausgestaltung des Lohnfindungsprozesses zu informieren.

DFG-Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

02.2019 ‐ 09.2019

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2018 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Fehlende Fachkräfte in Deutschland – Unterschiede in den Betrieben und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018. IAB-Forschungsbericht 10/2019.

Dr. Eva Dettmann

04.2016 ‐ 03.2019

Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte von Insolvenzen

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel des Projekts ist es, erstmals den Prozess und die Folgen des Scheiterns von Unternehmen ausführlich zu analysieren. Insbesondere ist es im Rahmen dieses Projekts erstmals möglich, die Folgen kleinbetrieblicher Insolvenzen zu erforschen, was vor allem deshalb relevant ist, weil Arbeitnehmer in Betrieben mit weniger als zehn Beschäftigten etwa viermal so häufig von Insolvenzen betroffen sind wie Arbeitnehmer in Großbetrieben.

Projektergebnisse im Überblick     Projekt-Website

Dr. Daniel Fackler
Professor Dr. Steffen Müller
Dr. Jens Stegmaier

01.2018 ‐ 12.2018

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2017 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Ausmaß und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2017. IAB-Forschungsbericht 6/2018.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2017 ‐ 09.2017

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2016 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Produktivitätsunterschiede zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2016. IAB-Forschungsbericht 16/2017.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

Referierte Publikationen

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Does Extended Unemployment Benefit Duration Ameliorate the Negative Employment Effects of Job Loss?

Daniel Fackler Jens Stegmaier Eva Weigt

in: Labour Economics, 2019

Abstract

We study the effect of job displacement due to bankruptcies on earnings and employment prospects of displaced workers and analyse whether extended potential unemployment benefit duration (PBD) ameliorates the negative consequences of job loss. Using German administrative linked employer-employee data, we find that job loss has long-lasting negative effects on earnings and employment. Displaced workers also more often end up in irregular employment relationships (part-time, marginal part-time employment, and temporary agency work) than their non-displaced counterparts. Applying a regression discontinuity approach that exploits a three months PBD extension at the age threshold of 50 we find hardly any effects of longer PBD on labour market outcomes of displaced workers.

Publikation lesen

HIP, RIP, and the Robustness of Empirical Earnings Processes

Florian Hoffmann

in: Quantitative Economics, Nr. 3, 2019

Abstract

The dispersion of individual returns to experience, often referred to as heterogeneity of income profiles (HIP), is a key parameter in empirical human capital models, in studies of life‐cycle income inequality, and in heterogeneous agent models of life‐cycle labor market dynamics. It is commonly estimated from age variation in the covariance structure of earnings. In this study, I show that this approach is invalid and tends to deliver estimates of HIP that are biased upward. The reason is that any age variation in covariance structures can be rationalized by age‐dependent heteroscedasticity in the distribution of earnings shocks. Once one models such age effects flexibly the remaining identifying variation for HIP is the shape of the tails of lag profiles. Credible estimation of HIP thus imposes strong demands on the data since one requires many earnings observations per individual and a low rate of sample attrition. To investigate empirically whether the bias in estimates of HIP from omitting age effects is quantitatively important, I thus rely on administrative data from Germany on quarterly earnings that follow workers from labor market entry until 27 years into their career. To strengthen external validity, I focus my analysis on an education group that displays a covariance structure with qualitatively similar properties like its North American counterpart. I find that a HIP model with age effects in transitory, persistent and permanent shocks fits the covariance structure almost perfectly and delivers small and insignificant estimates for the HIP component. In sharp contrast, once I estimate a standard HIP model without age‐effects the estimated slope heterogeneity increases by a factor of thirteen and becomes highly significant, with a dramatic deterioration of model fit. I reach the same conclusions from estimating the two models on a different covariance structure and from conducting a Monte Carlo analysis, suggesting that my quantitative results are not an artifact of one particular sample.

Publikation lesen

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Industrial Relations: Worker Codetermination and Collective Wage Bargaining

Steffen Müller Claus Schnabel

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Nr. 1, 2019

Abstract

Trade unions and employers’ associations, collective bargaining, and employee representation at the workplace are the cornerstones of industrial relations systems in many developed countries. Germany stands out as a country with powerful works councils and a high coverage rate of collective bargaining agreements, supported by encompassing interest groups of employees and employers and by the state. The German case and the perceived stability of its industrial relations regime have attracted considerable attention among researchers and politicians, which also has to do with the country’s high productivity, comparably few strikes, and relatively minor employment problems. However, in recent years industrial relations in many countries including Germany have come under pressure and the fact that there is no obvious and clearly superior alternative to the current regime of industrial and labour relations may not be sufficient to guarantee the survival of the present system.

Publikation lesen

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Plant-level Employment Development before Collective Displacements: Comparing Mass Layoffs, Plant Closures and Bankruptcies

Daniel Fackler Steffen Müller Jens Stegmaier

in: Applied Economics, Nr. 50, 2018

Abstract

This article analyzes the development of employment levels and worker flows before bankruptcies, plant closure without bankruptcies and mass layoffs. Utilizing administrative plant-level data for Germany, we find no systematic employment reductions prior to mass layoffs, a strong and long-lasting reduction prior to closures, and a much shorter shadow of death preceding bankruptcies. Employment reductions in closing plants, in contrast to bankruptcies and mass layoffs, do not come along with increased worker flows. These patterns point to an intended and controlled shrinking strategy for closures without bankruptcy and to an unintended collapse for bankruptcies and mass layoffs.

Publikation lesen

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Size of Training Firms – The Role of Firms, Luck, and Ability in Young Workers’ Careers

Steffen Müller Renate Neubäumer

in: International Journal of Manpower, Nr. 5, 2018

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how long-run unemployment of former apprentices depends on the size of their training firm and their ability.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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The Impact of Delay: Evidence from Formal Out-of-Court Restructuring

Randall K. Filer Dejan Kovač Jacob N. Shapiro Stjepan Srhoj

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 10, 2021

Abstract

Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a „pre-bankruptcy settlement“ (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms‘ future prospects.

Publikation lesen

Organised Labour, Labour Market Imperfections, and Employer Wage Premia

Sabien Dobbelaer Boris Hirsch Steffen Müller Georg Neuschäffer

in: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, Nr. 20, 2020

Abstract

This paper examines how collective bargaining through unions and workplace co-determination through works councils shape labour market imperfections and how labourmarket imperfections matter for employer wage premia. Based on representative Germanplant data for the years 1999{2016, we document that labour market imperfections arethe norm rather than the exception. Wage mark-downs, that is wages below the marginalrevenue product of labour rooted in employers' monopsony power, are the most prevalentoutcome. We further nd that both types of organised labour are accompanied by asmaller prevalence and intensity of wage mark-downs whereas the opposite holds for wagemark-ups, that is wages above the marginal revenue product of labour rooted in workers'monopoly power. Finally, we document a close link between our production-based labourmarket imperfection measures and employer wage premia. The prevalence and intensityof wage mark-downs are associated with a smaller level and larger dispersion of premiawhereas wage mark-ups are only accompanied by a higher premium level.

Publikation lesen

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Organised Labour, Labour Market Imperfections, and Employer Wage Premia

Sabien Dobbelaer Boris Hirsch Steffen Müller Georg Neuschäffer

in: IZA Discussion Paper, Nr. 13909, 2020

Abstract

This paper examines how collective bargaining through unions and workplace co-determination through works councils shape labour market imperfections and how labourmarket imperfections matter for employer wage premia. Based on representative Germanplant data for the years 1999{2016, we document that labour market imperfections arethe norm rather than the exception. Wage mark-downs, that is wages below the marginalrevenue product of labour rooted in employers' monopsony power, are the most prevalentoutcome. We further nd that both types of organised labour are accompanied by asmaller prevalence and intensity of wage mark-downs whereas the opposite holds for wagemark-ups, that is wages above the marginal revenue product of labour rooted in workers'monopoly power. Finally, we document a close link between our production-based labourmarket imperfection measures and employer wage premia. The prevalence and intensityof wage mark-downs are associated with a smaller level and larger dispersion of premiawhereas wage mark-ups are only accompanied by a higher premium level.

Publikation lesen

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Robot Adoption at German Plants

Liuchun Deng Verena Plümpe Jens Stegmaier

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 19, 2020

Abstract

Using a newly collected dataset of robot use at the plant level from 2014 to 2018, we provide the first microscopic portrait of robotisation in Germany and study the potential determinants of robot adoption. Our descriptive analysis uncovers five stylised facts concerning both extensive and, perhaps more importantly, intensive margin of plant-level robot use: (1) Robot use is relatively rare with only 1.55% German plants using robots in 2018. (2) The distribution of robots is highly skewed. (3) New robot adopters contribute substantially to the recent robotisation. (4) Robot users are exceptional along several dimensions of plant-level characteristics. (5) Heterogeneity in robot types matters. Our regression results further suggest plant size, low-skilled labour share, and exporter status to have strong and positive effect on future probability of robot adoption. Manufacturing plants impacted by the introduction of minimum wage in 2015 are also more likely to adopt robots. However, controlling for plant size, we find that plant-level productivity has no, if not negative, impact on robot adoption.

Publikation lesen

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Worker Participation in Decision-making, Worker Sorting, and Firm Performance

Steffen Müller Georg Neuschäffer

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 11, 2020

Abstract

Worker participation in decision-making is often associated with high-wage and high-productivity firm strategies. Using linked-employer-employee data for Germany and worker fixed effects from a two-way fixed effects model of wages capturing observed and unobserved worker quality, we find that establishments with formal worker participation via works councils indeed employ higher-quality workers. We show that worker quality is already higher in plants before council introduction and further increases after the introduction. Importantly, we corroborate previous studies by showing positive productivity and profitability effects even after taking into account worker sorting.

Publikation lesen
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